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Webinar series

2021 Indonesia Coal Outlook

Adapting for survival in a challenging world’s coal markets

Background

The global outbreak of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) has changed the world’s coal demand and supply trend during 2020, including Indonesia – the world’s largest thermal coal exporter. Miners are facing more volatility on coal price and risk than ever before.

The government estimated Indonesia’s coal export may be at least 392.4 million tons in 2020, a 14 percent lower than coal export realization in 2019 at 454.5 million tons.

The government, however, expects higher coal export potential this year on strong demand in key market of China and also in new markets in the region such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources projected the country’s coal export volume would be in the range of 406.3 million-427 million tons this year with coal export to the China market is estimated to range from 185 million tons to 202.3 million tons.

The government has set coal production target of 550 million tons this year, or the same as last year’s target in a bid to help revive the price of the commodity. All coal miners in the country must adjust their 2021 production plans to the government’s output target.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 2.6 percent rise in global coal demand in 2021, driven by higher electricity demand and industrial output. China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, although the United States and Europe may also both see their first increases in coal consumption in nearly a decade.

The IEA, however, said that global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met.

The rebound in coal demand in 2021 is set to be short-lived, with coal use forecast to flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tons. IEA stated that the future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. Today, China and India account for 65 percent of global coal demand. With Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia included, that share rises to 75 percent. China, which currently accounts for half of the world’s coal consumption, will be especially influential.

The webinar would be held on six series to explore coal supply and demand trend in domestic, ASEAN, India and China, Japan and Taiwan and exploring the prospect of Indonesian coal to the global markets.

Day 1

Wednesday,
January 20, 2021
14.00 – 15.30 WIB

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Domestic coal market outlook and supply trend


Rundown

14.00 – 15.30 : CEO Talk (Bahasa Indonesia) : How will Indonesia Miners adapt to the global market?

  • What is the overview of Indonesian coal production target for 2021?
  • To what extent can Indonesian miners ramp up production in the current market?
  • Are the current coal prices sustainable? What are key trends of coal price and its drivers in 2021?
  • How is Indonesia coal miners responding to increasing market risks and supply chain challenges due to the Covid-19 pandemic?
  • Is now the right time to invest in coal downstream industry?
  • What is the future of Indonesia in the Asian Coal Market?

Opening Remark : Indonesian Government policy on coal mining industry

Overview of the government policy on prioritizing domestic market: Trend of domestic demand in 2021

Day 2

Friday,
January 22, 2021
14.00 – 15.30 WIB

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China Coal Market Outlook and Supply trend


Rundown

14.00 – 15.30 : (English) How will Indonesia Miners adapt to China coal market?

  • China coal market projections -- What to expect in 2021?
  • How much coal will China be looking to import in 2021? What are potential China market trend for Indonesian coal?
  • What coal qualities are highest in demand from Chinese importers?
  • Will China remain a key driver of coal growth demand in 2021?
  • What would be the biggest challenges for China coal mining in 2021?

Day 3

Wednesday,
January 27, 2021
14.00 – 15.30 WIB

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India Coal Market Outlook and Supply trend


Rundown

14.00 – 15.30 : (English) How will Indonesia Miners adapt to the India coal market?

  • What coal quantities will India utilities seek to import in 2021?
  • What is the potential of India market trend for Indonesian coal?"
  • The future of coal supply -- Domestic vs Imports
  • How will coal trading patterns change as power plants consume more domestic coal?
  • Will India remain the key driver of coal growth demand in 2021?
  • What are the expected biggest challenges for India coal mining in 2021?

Day 4

Friday,
January 29, 2021
14.00 – 15.30 WIB

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ASEAN Coal Market Outlook and Supply trend


Rundown

14.00 – 15.30: (English) How will Indonesia Miners adapt to the ASEAN coal market?

  • What is the current status of coal use on power plants in ASEAN countries, particularly in Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam?
  • What is the future’s coal demand and supply for coal-fired power plant in ASEAN? What is the future portion of coal on energy mix policy ompared to oil and gas?
  • What factors are shaping the coal consumption trend?
  • What are strong points of Indonesian coal to supply coal to ASEAN market compared with other producing countries?

Day 5

Wednesday,
February 3, 2021
14.00 – 15.30 WIB

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Japan, Korea, Taiwan Coal Market Outlook and Supply trend


Rundown

14.00 – 15.30: (English) How will Indonesia Miners adapt to Japan, Korea, Taiwan coal market?

  • Japan, Korea and Taiwan coal markets outlook -- What to expect in 2021?
  • What coal quantities will utility companies in Japan, Korea and Taiwan seek to import in 2021?
  • Coal quality specifications for Japan, Korea, Taiwan importers.
  • What are the biggest challenges for coal market in Japan, Korea, Taiwan in 2021?
  • What opportunities arise in Asia coal markets over short, medium and long term?

Investment

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Further Information

Telephone: +62-21-2245 8787

Email: businessevents@petromindo.com

Organized by:

Coalasia Petromindo