Asia LNG prices seen rising in 2026 as Middle East conflict disrupts supply
Tuesday, March 17 2026 - 01:13 PM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
Asian spot LNG prices are expected to rise sharply in 2026 as the ongoing Middle East conflict disrupts supply routes, with prices forecast to climb to around $14 per MMBtu, up from about $10 per MMBtu before the crisis, according to Rystad Energy.
The revision follows escalating tensions in the region and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for global energy shipments, which has significantly altered market assumptions.
“Disruptions to Middle Eastern LNG supply have shifted price formation toward Asia,” said Kaushal Ramesh, noting that more than 85% of LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were delivered to Asian markets last year.
Rystad estimates that around 11 million tonnes (Mt) of LNG supply from Qatar and the UAE could be lost under its base case scenario, though global supply growth from the United States, Canada and Australia is expected to offset part of the shortfall.
Read also : Middle East conflict disrupts LNG supply, stokes energy security fears
The firm expects LNG production in Qatar and the UAE to gradually return to full capacity by the second half of May, assuming disruptions ease.
Europe is also set to compete more aggressively for LNG cargoes, with demand expected to increase by 18 Mt year on year in 2026, potentially tightening global markets further.
However, the impact on prices may be moderated by weaker demand growth in emerging Asian markets, particularly in South Asia, where high prices could curb consumption.
Rystad said a more severe scenario involving a six month closure of the Strait of Hormuz could remove up to 40 Mt of LNG supply from the market and push prices to around $30 per MMBtu on average in 2026, approaching levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
Such a prolonged disruption could force demand cuts even in traditionally price insensitive markets in Europe and developed Asia, while accelerating fuel switching to oil.
The current market outlook underscores the growing importance of supply routes that avoid geopolitical chokepoints, with buyers likely to place a premium on LNG sources deemed more secure and reliable, Rystad said.
Editing by Alexander Ginting