Ceasefire eases oil prices but physical market tightness persists, Rystad says
Thursday, April 9 2026 - 05:20 AM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has pushed oil prices below $100 per barrel, but tightness in physical markets is expected to persist as supply chains take time to normalize, according to Rystad Energy.
Rystad said the ceasefire has removed much of the panic premium from oil prices, prompting it to lower its 2026 average Brent forecast to $87 per barrel from $97.
However, the firm said the adjustment in futures markets has not translated into an immediate recovery in physical supply conditions.
“Oil plunged below $100 per barrel after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire,” said Janiv Shah, Vice President, Commodity Markets – Oil, Rystad Energy, adding that refiners may use the window to resume purchases, though delays could worsen product tightness.
Rystad noted that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, with passage still subject to coordination and operational risks, limiting a full return to normal flows.
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The divergence between futures and physical markets is expected to continue, with tanker rates elevated and crude differentials remaining firm despite falling benchmark prices.
The firm said activity is likely to resume gradually rather than immediately, as tanker operators and insurers assess risks, including potential damage from underwater mines.
Asian buyers are facing additional challenges, with the Brent-Dubai spread remaining high and limiting arbitrage opportunities, while supply from the Gulf may take weeks to reach regional markets.
Rystad added that even with the ceasefire, Asia remains constrained by limited supply and unfavorable pricing conditions, as the regional crude supply chain has yet to fully recover.
Editing by Alexander Ginting