China could lift coal output this year amid Indonesian curbs

China may increase domestic coal production this year as imports decline following Indonesia’s move to restrict shipments in an effort to support prices, Bloomberg reported, citing the country’s main coal industry body.

The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD) has lowered its forecast for China’s coal imports in 2026 to 465 million tonnes, down from an earlier projection of 480 million tonnes made about three weeks ago, the association said on Monday (Feb. 9).

China produced a record 4.8 billion tonnes of coal last year, despite growing pressure on the industry over climate concerns and mine safety. The CCTD said Indonesia’s production curbs could increase the likelihood that China’s domestic output continues to rise, estimating local production at 4.86 billion tonnes this year. Output could climb further if imports fall more sharply than expected, it added.

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Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, signalled in early January that it plans to cut production by nearly a quarter this year to around 600 million tonnes, aiming to boost prices. The move has already supported the market, with Australian thermal coal futures—the regional benchmark—up about 9% so far this year.

“Global supply will tighten if Indonesia’s annual production falls below 700 million tonnes,” said Li Zhiyuan, a bulk commodity analyst at Kpler, adding that fellow exporters Russia and Colombia could be among the biggest beneficiaries.

Indonesia accounted for about 40% of China’s coal imports last year, with its coal widely used by coastal power plants when it is cheaper than domestic supply. While Chinese thermal coal prices have yet to fully reflect Indonesia’s plans—partly due to subdued trading ahead of the Lunar New Year—the CCTD said upward pressure on prices is building.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak