Chinese firms projected to control 39% of global lithium extraction by 2030

Chinese firms projected to control 39% of global lithium extraction by 2030

By Romel S. Gurky

Chinese companies are expected to control 39 percent of global lithium extraction by 2030, up from about one third in 2020, according to an analysis by Wood Mackenzie released on Monday.

The report said global lithium production is becoming more geographically diversified, while ownership of lithium assets remains concentrated among a relatively small group of companies led by China.

Australia accounted for 43 percent of global lithium extraction in 2020, but its share is forecast to decline to 25 percent by 2030 as production growth accelerates in other regions, particularly Africa.

Africa’s share of global lithium extraction is projected to rise from near zero in 2020 to 13 percent by 2030, representing one of the fastest supply shifts in the global lithium sector.

Wood Mackenzie Research Director Allan Pedersen said lithium production and ownership are increasingly diverging, reshaping global critical mineral supply chains.

The report said Chinese firms have expanded ownership stakes in lithium assets in Australia, Argentina, and several African countries through investments and acquisitions.

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Recent transactions include Huayou Cobalt’s proposed acquisition of Atlantic Lithium and investment in the Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana, as well as Tianqi Lithium’s stake in the Greenbushes mine in Australia and Hainan Mining’s investment in Kodal Mining’s Bougouni project in Mali.

According to the report, African headquartered companies are expected to own only 1 percent of global lithium output by 2030 despite the continent’s rising production share.

Wood Mackenzie said most lithium project financing in Africa has come from Chinese capital as Western investors have become more cautious.

The report also projected South America’s share of global lithium supply to decline to below 25 percent by 2030 due to slower expansion of brine based lithium production compared with hard rock projects elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Europe’s ownership share is expected to increase following Rio Tinto’s acquisition of Arcadium Lithium and investment by Equinor in battery materials businesses.

Australian headquartered companies are forecast to retain about 21 percent ownership of global lithium output in 2030 through domestic and overseas assets, according to the report.

Editing by Alexander Ginting