Fitch Affirms DCI Indonesia at 'AA-(idn)'; Outlook Stable

(Fitch Ratings - Jakarta - 16 Jul 2026)--Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed Indonesia-based data-centre owner and operator PT DCI Indonesia Tbk's National Long-Term Rating at 'AA-(idn)'. The Outlook is Stable.

DCI's rating reflects its leading position in Indonesia and high-quality but concentrated assets. The rating also reflects our expectation of rising EBITDA net leverage as it executes significant growth plans in the next few years. However, we expect the company's strong cash flow visibility and record of execution and balance sheet management to provide flexibility for it to maintain a credit profile commensurate with its rating.

'AA' National Ratings denote expectations of a very low level of default risk relative to other issuers or obligations in the same country or monetary union. The default risk inherent differs only slightly from that of the country's highest rated issuers or obligations.

Key Rating Drivers

Robust Pre-Contracted Growth: Fitch expects DCI to undertake significant developments in the next two to three years, driven by robust demand growth from hyperscale customers. We project that the company's shell capacity will increase to over 850MW, comprising over 360MW of owned assets and a nearly 500MW platform data centre in partnership with the asset owner, from 128MW in 2025. Development risk is limited as the expansion is pre-contracted. We estimate this will increase DCI's annual EBITDA to IDR5 trillion-6 trillion by 2027-2028 (2025: IDR1.5 trillion), with EBITDA margins of 45%-55% (2025: 60%).

DCI has a strong record of growth. Its robust operating cash flow and contract-backed expansion led to about 40% revenue growth in 2024-2025 and 20%-25% in 2022-2023, while leverage stayed low.

Rising Leverage During Expansion: We expect DCI's EBITDA net leverage to increase over the next few years as it executes its significant growth plans and partially funds them through debt. We project EBITDA net leverage to reach 5.5x-6.0x in 2026 (2025: 1.0x), before declining to around 4.0x in 2027. Strong revenue visibility is likely to support deleveraging on the completion of the new capacity. However, leverage could remain elevated for longer than our expectation if strong industry demand growth continues and leads to DCI's investment phase extending beyond that incorporated in our current rating case.

Our capex assumption considers the company's record of completing its past construction and expansion without significant time or cost overrun.

Domestic Market Leader: DCI is the largest data-centre operator in Indonesia and benefits from first-mover advantage. It serves over 250 customers, including global cloud providers, social media companies, e-commerce platforms, financial institutions and network service providers. Its established tenant ecosystem enables DCI to offer high-margin interconnection services, which connect tenants with business partners, content providers and internet service providers. Fitch estimates that hyperscale clients will account for 70%-90% of DCI's recurring revenue in the medium term (2025: 65%). Strong credit profiles of key tenants mitigate concentration risk.

Concentrated, High-Quality Portfolio: DCI's portfolio is concentrated with nine operating data centres across four sites in Jakarta and its outskirts, and Surabaya. Strong demand for DCI's data centres mitigates its asset concentration risk, with contracted to shell capacity reaching over 90%. Asset concentration will gradually improve as DCI expands its portfolio, with additional data centres currently under construction. DCI's data centres have Tier IV Gold Operation Sustainability certification from the Uptime Institute. This reflects high asset reliability and enhances tenant appeal as it mitigates risks from domestic power outage-led service interruptions.

Strong Cash Flow Visibility: DCI's business profile benefits from long-term leases that provide cash flow visibility. The average lease is seven to 10 years, with most tenants having an option to extend. Early contract termination will entail a penalty. Renewal rates are high due to high switching costs and data centres being mission-critical infrastructure. DCI's interconnection services also add to customer retention. Power cost pass-through for hyperscale clients eases the risk of energy cost volatility.

Peer Analysis

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (Alfamart, AA(idn)/Positive) is rated higher than DCI due to its significantly larger EBITDA scale of IDR9 trillion-10 trillion. Both have strong market positions, although Alfamart leads in a well-established industry domestically as one of the largest minimarket operators in Indonesia. Meanwhile, DCI is the largest data-centre operator in Indonesia's still-evolving data-centre market. Alfamart's rating is also supported by its strong capital structure with a net cash position. DCI has better cash flow visibility with contracted cash flow, but demand for Alfamart's grocery products has been fairly stable and defensive across economic cycles.

We rate Indonesia's leading industrial and medical gas supplier PT Samator Indo Gas Tbk (SIG, A(idn)/Stable) two notches below DCI. Both companies benefit from cash flow visibility from long-term customer contracts and strong market positions in their respective sectors. However, SIG has smaller scale and narrower EBITDA margin of around 30%. SIG has more diverse funding options with a track record of issuing domestic bonds and sukuk.

Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions

- Additional contracted capacity of over 700MW over the next three years

- EBITDA margin of 45%-55% in 2026-2027

- Capex of IDR10 trillion-15 trillion per year in 2026-2027

- No dividend payment in 2026-2027

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade:

- Sustained increase in EBITDA net leverage to above 5.5x

- Aggressive committed development capex that is not backed by tenant contracts

- Sustained weakening in cash flow due to major tenant defaults

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade:

- Improving operating scale, evident from significant growth in capacity and EBITDA, while maintaining EBITDA net leverage below 4.5x

Liquidity and Debt Structure

DCI had IDR256 billion in cash at end-March 2026, against IDR337 billion in long-term loan amortisation maturing in the next 12 months. We expect the company's liquidity to be supported by strong operating cash flow of IDR1.0 trillion-1.5 trillion in 2026.

DCI has credit relationships with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BCA, BBB/Negative/AAA(idn)/Stable) and PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BBB/Negative/AAA(idn)/Stable). The company has received additional IDR17 trillion of investment credit facilities to fund its expansionary capex. We estimate DCI will face more significant debt maturity from 2029 as most of its investment loans have a grace period for 2026-2028. DCI's funding is still limited to secured bank financing. However, its access to domestic banks is supported by its strong business profile with contracted cash flow.

Issuer Profile

DCI is the largest data-centre owner and operator in Indonesia. It offers carrier-neutral data-centre co-location services to both hyperscale and retail customers.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS

 

Click here to access Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor data file which aggregates key data points used in our credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included. (ends)