Fitch Affirms Pelayaran Nasional Indonesia at 'AAA(idn)' and 'F1+(idn)'; Outlook Stable

(Fitch Ratings - Sydney/Jakarta - 22 Apr 2026)--Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed PT Pelayaran Nasional Indonesia (Persero)'s (PELNI) National Long-Term Rating at 'AAA(idn)' and National Short-Term Rating at 'F1+(idn)'. The Outlook is Stable.

The affirmation reflects Fitch's unchanged view of PELNI as a government-related entity (GRE) mandated as the national passenger and cargo shipping company, focusing on inter-island sea mass transportation, and credit-linked to the Indonesian sovereign (BBB/Negative), with a strong likelihood of receiving extraordinary government support, if needed. PELNI's ratings reflect Fitch's assessment of the likelihood of state support under our Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria, as well as Fitch's assessment of PELNI's risk and financial profile under our Public Policy Revenue-Supported Entities Rating Criteria.

We look through the recently established Danantara sovereign wealth fund, including its operational holding company, PT Danantara Asset Management (DAM), the direct owner of PELNI, in our application of the GRE criteria.

'AAA(idn)' National Ratings denote the highest rating assigned by the agency in its National Rating scale for Indonesia. This rating is assigned to issuers or obligations with the lowest expectation of default risk relative to all other issuers or obligations in the same country or monetary union.

'F1+(idn)' National Short-Term Ratings indicate the strongest capacity for timely payment of financial commitments relative to other issuers or obligations in the same country. Under the agency's National Rating scale, this rating is assigned to the lowest default risk relative to others in the same country or monetary union. Where the liquidity profile is particularly strong, a "+" is added to the assigned rating.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Support Score Assessment 'Virtually certain'

We believe extraordinary support from the Indonesian government to PELNI would be 'Virtually Certain' if needed, reflecting a support score of 50 out of a maximum 60 under our Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria. This reflects our assessment of the government's responsibility and incentive to provide support.

Responsibility to Support

Decision Making and Oversight 'Very Strong'

The Indonesian government effectively controls PELNI's operations. It directs the company's strategic and operating activities through DAM, which owns almost 100% of PELNI. PELNI, as the national maritime transport provider, is also subject to stringent oversight from the Ministry of Transport, which regulates the company's routes and pricing to support national connectivity.

Precedents of Support 'Very Strong'

Fitch considers the public service obligations (PSOs) and subsidies that PELNI receives for non-commercial routes mandated by the government as evidence of the government's consistent financial and policy support, driving our 'Very Strong' assessment. Revenue from PSOs and subsidies that PELNI receives is based on regulated mechanisms and has consistently accounted for about 60% of PELNI's total revenue, which we expect to continue over the medium term.

The government also provides support through capital injections to replace ageing vessels, with PELNI receiving a total of IDR4 trillion over the past two years. Fitch expects the government to continue to provide support, which would enable PELNI to continue to provide its mandated services.

Incentives to Support

Preservation of Government Policy Role 'Very Strong'

Fitch's assessment is based on PELNI's government policy role as the sole national provider of government-mandated shipping services, which ensure national connectivity, including to Indonesia's outermost islands. Its mandate centres on operating non-profitable routes that the government considers essential. A default by PELNI, without effective substitutes, could result in major service disruptions to vital public services and a decline in public trust in the government's ability to manage essential services.

Contagion Risk 'Strong'

Fitch believes the government has a strong incentive to avoid a default by PELNI. Fitch expects the government to provide support if PELNI faces financial distress, given PELNI's vital public role in supporting national connectivity through maritime transportation. A default by PELNI could impair the government's creditworthiness and weaken investor sentiment towards other GREs because of PELNI's strong links with the government. This could increase funding costs for both the government and other GREs. However, this assessment is constrained by PELNI's low debt levels and modest debt plans over the medium term.

Standalone Credit Profile

PELNI's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) of 'aa-(idn)' reflects our view of its 'Low Midrange' risk profile and a financial profile in the 'a' category.

Risk Profile: 'Low midrange'

Fitch assesses PELNI's risk profile at 'Low Midrange', reflecting a combination of two 'Midrange' and one 'Weaker' key risk factor assessments along with a 'b' operating environment score. The operating environment score reflects Fitch's view of Indonesia's economic environment, financial market development, bankruptcy regime, reporting policies for borrowing, and control and monitoring.

Revenue Risk: 'Midrange'

PELNI's revenue risk assessment reflects constraints on revenue generation from regulated tariffs, limiting the entity's pricing power. The government tightly controls tariffs on PELNI's service routes to ensure affordability and requires PELNI to operate unprofitable routes, although it compensates the company for these services through government-mandated PSOs and subsidies. Fitch continues to expect PELNI's revenue to be bolstered by government assignments, which make up about 60% of total revenue and have remained relatively constant in recent years, with fluctuations that generally align with economic growth.

Expenditure Risk: 'Weaker'

PELNI's expenditure risk assessment is driven by its limited ability to reduce spending during weaker demand periods, reflecting a sizeable fixed-cost base and ongoing fleet maintenance and renewal needs, pressuring margins during economic downturns. Operating expenses totaled IDR5.25 trillion in 2025 with fixed costs accounting for 42%. Part of its passenger fleet is also relatively old, with several vessels exceeding 20 years and some materially older, constraining flexibility in deferring replacements or major maintenance.

Liabilities and Liquidity Risk: 'Midrange'

PELNI's liabilities and liquidity risk reflects low direct debt and strong cash balances, tempered by some liability complexity and limits on liquidity quality. Interest-bearing debt was only IDR8.8 billion at end-2025, or 0.08% of equity, against cash and cash equivalents of IDR4.11 trillion and other current financial assets of IDR4.80 trillion.

Liquid assets are mainly held in rupiah at government-owned banks. PELNI's adjusted debt fell by 32% to IDR45.9 billion by end-2025, with 62% in government debt, 23% in finance leases and 15% in bank loans for working capital. The weighted-average life of debt was 3.4 years. PELNI has no exposure to foreign-currency and floating-rate debt. The company does not plan to issue debt in the medium term.

Financial Profile 'a'

PELNI's revenue was stable in 2025, at IDR6.2 trillion, while profit fell slightly to IDR500 billion, from IDR603 billion in 2024, due to cost pressures. The company will be increasing its investment in vessel procurement in its short- to medium-term investment plan. Still, our rating case for leverage remains favourable, at 6.1x by end-2030, with high liquidity coverage. This results in a financial profile in the 'a' category.

Other Rating Factors

Asymmetric risk is 'Neutral', based on good management and governance, a strong regulatory framework, sound accounting policies, reporting and transparency as well as neutral country risk and legal regime.

Peer Analysis

PELNI's support category is assessed as 'Virtually Certain', in line with many international transport GRE peers whose public-service mandates are integral to government policy, such as Korea Railroad Corporation (AA-/Stable). The support assessment also underpins PELNI's 'AAA(idn)' National Rating and is consistent with peers that have strong links to the Indonesian government, such as PT Sarana Multigriya Finansial (Persero) (AAA(idn)/Stable).

Issuer Profile

PELNI is Indonesia's state-owned maritime transport company. It operates passenger and cargo routes across the archipelago, especially targeting remote and underdeveloped regions. Its mission is to reduce economic disparities and promote growth by enhancing connectivity and accessibility through a network of 321 ports and 43 branch offices across Indonesia, operating a total of 82 ships.

Key Assumptions

Fitch's rating case is a through-the-cycle scenario, which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial risk stresses. It is based on 2021-2025 historical figures and 2026-2030 key assumptions:

- Operating revenue CAGR of 2.9% in 2026-2030 (2021-2025: 8.4%), driven by revenue from additional vessels that will be realised in 2029 with the portion of revenue from government assignments remaining stable;

- Operating expenditure CAGR of 5.8% in 2026-2030 (2021-2025: 8.7%);

- Capex to average IDR940 billion per year in 2026-2030 (2021-2025: IDR77.2 billion), as the company plans to acquire new vessels to replace its more than 30-year-old fleet.

Rating Sensitivities

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

A deterioration in the overall support score to less than 45 points from weaker assessment of the government's responsibility or incentive to provide support.

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

No upgrade is possible, as the ratings are already at the highest level on the national scale.

Climate Vulnerability Signals

The results of our Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated risk for PT Pelayaran Nasional Indonesia (Persero).

Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings

PELNI is credit-linked to the Indonesian sovereign.

Sources of Information

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the applicable criteria.

References for Substantially Material Source Cited as Key Driver Rating

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. (ends)