Fitch: Indonesia fuel-price rise a clear, positive reform signal

(18 November 2014)--Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to quickly implement its reform agenda, says Fitch Ratings. Furthermore, the reduction in subsidies creates space for increasing growth-enhancing capex, and should also improve Indonesia's external balances, especially as this supports foreign investment inflows.

Raising the price of subsidised fuel, while broadly positive for credit, does not change our Outlook on Indonesia's sovereign rating. Fitch had factored in a subsidy cut of similar proportions to what was recently announced when we affirmed the 'BBB-' rating and Stable Outlook on 13 November. Fitch retains its forecasts for deficits of 2.5% of GDP in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015. Furthermore, though the subsidy bill is high compared with peers, it was not a key factor affecting sovereign debt sustainability - given the country's relatively low public debt burden of 26% of GDP.

The deficit forecasts remain unchanged, although the decision will enable the government to re-allocate the expenditures to productivity-enhancing capital investments, which will be beneficial to growth. Indonesia is particularly constrained in the availability of productive capital spending - owing to relatively low government revenues compared with peers, and as total expenditures are restricted by a fiscal deficit limit of 3% of GDP. Adherence to this prudent fiscal rule is a distinctive feature of Indonesia's sovereign profile compared with many peers, and is a positive factor for the credit.

The decision should only have a moderate direct impact on Indonesia's net oil deficit in the short and medium term, due to the relatively inelastic demand for oil. Should the government follow through on plans to boost productivity through increased investment in infrastructure, however, there should be a net positive effect on the country's current account over the long term. Infrastructure improvement would be a prerequisite for the development of the manufacturing sector to such an extent that it would lead to diversification of exports away from commodities.

The long-mooted idea to raise administered fuel prices was closely followed by the investment community. Now that the decision has been implemented, it should more generally raise confidence in the government's commitment to fiscal and supply-side economic reforms. Potential for improvement in the investment climate is substantial, through cutting bureaucratic impediments for businesses and ensuring the minimum wage is in line with productivity growth. Indonesia's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business indicators at the 36th percentile is low compared with the 'BBB' category median at the 65th percentile.

It is important to note, though, that the fuel price hike alone should not be taken as a signal of the ability of the Indonesian government to push through other reforms in future. The fuel-price hike did not require parliamentary approval, unlike other more far-reaching reforms to improve the business climate. Furthermore, a fuel price-setting mechanism that would allow for a fixed-fuel subsidy which would make the budget - and capex in particular - more robust to future oil price rises, has not been introduced thus far. (ends)