Fitch: Indonesian ore ban to have limited impact on Chinese aluminium producers endorsement policy

(Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-13 January 2014) -- Fitch Ratings says today that Indonesia's ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore will have limited impact on Chinese aluminium producers in the short-term because they hold bauxite stocks that could last up to a year. These producers have also begun changing aspects of their operations to make them less reliant on Indonesian ore over the longer term.

The ban, which came into effect on 12 January 2014, has halted shipments of unprocessed raw materials, which are mainly bound for China. Indonesia's mining ministry, however, is considering giving producers the flexibility to continue exports of some metals, except nickel and bauxite, until 2017.

About one fifth of China's aluminium is produced using bauxite imports from Indonesia, but Chinese producers have built up bauxite stocks that may be sufficient for up to a year of production. In 2013, bauxite imports into China rose about 80%, while alumina production increased 18%-20%.

Over the longer term, Fitch believes the ban will not have much impact on overall costs for Chinese producers as they have taken steps since the announcement of the Indonesian ban in 2009 to diversify their bauxite import sources. These steps include building new refineries to take in bauxite feeds from countries other than Indonesia; securing resources in Australia, India, Papua New Guinea, among others; and obtaining quotas for export of bauxite in exchange for building refineries and smelters in Indonesia.

There could be a short period between when China's current bauxite stocks are depleted and when the full benefits of the diversification measures are felt when China would have to increase its alumina imports, especially in light of its increasing aluminium production capacity. This could drive up aluminium production costs temporarily, but it is not likely to have a significant impact on global alumina prices as producers forecast world alumina output to be in surplus in 2014. (ends)