Fitch: Pressure on China coal miners to continue despite government support

(Hong Kong/Shanghai-08 December 2014) -- Fitch Ratings says that Chinese coal mining companies will continue to be pressured by low prices, which will persist despite recent government measures that have helped to arrest the downward trend. These measures, however, are not enough to meaningfully improve prices over the short term. Cost control and leverage reduction will be important strategies for companies to maintain stable credit quality.

2014 has been a difficult year for coal mining companies in China, with coal prices sliding by about 20% in the first 10 months of the year. Prices have been hurt by overcapacity in the industry, which has persisted since 2012. There was also lower demand for thermal coal stemming from one-off factors such as higher-than-average rainfall that boosted hydropower generation.

The government introduced measures to support the industry, including imposing import duties ranging from 3% to 6% for thermal and coking coal from mid-October 2014. This led to a 27% fall in coal import volume in November 2014 compared with a year ago. In addition, the government banned the domestic production as well as import of low-quality coal.

Together with a seasonal upswing in coal consumption, coal prices in China have stabilised recently. The Qinhuangdao 5500kcal free on board (FOB) coal price has risen by about 6% since the beginning of November 2014. Nonetheless, Fitch believes a meaningful upswing in coal prices is unlikely in the next 12 months. Substantial capacity investments in previous boom years are still being digested, while demand has been weakened due to industrial deceleration. In addition, the government aims to increase the production of renewable energy at the expense of the share of coal-fired power over the longer term, which means that the thermal coal consumption growth rate is set to decline.

While 2014 coal prices are comparable with 2009 levels, production costs are in general about 25%-30% higher than in 2009, driven by increases in staff expenses as well as governmental fees, such as land conversion fees and environmental protection fees. To combat lower prices, many Chinese coal producers have cut costs significantly. Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited (Yancoal; BB+/Stable) has reduced its domestic mining cost per ton by 30% during the first three quarters of 2014 from a year earlier, thereby maintaining steady gross profits on a per ton basis. Fitch believes a continuation of similar efforts will be needed for coal companies to preserve cash flow.

When coal prices increased between 2009 and 2012, many coal producers undertook debt-funded capex and investments. With the reversal in coal prices, their leverage has climbed higher than they expected because the expected cash flow for debt reduction failed to materialise. Efforts to improve debt leverage amid continuing low prices will be crucial for companies to maintain stable credit profiles.

Yancoal saw its FFO adjusted leverage rising from 1.2x in 2011 to 3.9x in 2012, and further to 6.1x in 2013. The company tried to improve its capital structure through various means including the issuance of perpetual securities; it is currently proposing the issuance of convertible bonds at its Australian subsidiary. Fitch expects Yancoal to continue efforts to improve its debt structure. (ends)