Fitch Ratings Increases Most Near-Term Metals and Mining Price Assumptions

(Fitch Ratings-London-09 June 2026)--Fitch Ratings has increased most of its near-term metals and mining price assumptions, reflecting year-to-date prices and commodity-specific supply and demand drivers.

The increased 2026 copper assumption reflects higher year-to-date prices. We continue to incorporate healthy demand, despite a slowdown in the implementation of energy transition policies in some developed markets, while the pace of supply growth from new projects remains constrained by onerous permitting processes.

The increased near-term iron ore assumptions reflect higher shipping and logistics costs, driven by increased fuel costs due to the Iran war.

The higher 2026-2027 coking coal assumptions reflect higher year-to-date prices and reduced supply due to disruptions in Australia and a mining accident in China, while demand from steelmakers remains robust. The increased mid-cycle price assumption reflects higher production costs.

The increased 2026-2027 aluminium assumptions reflect production curtailments in the Middle East due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and declining global inventory levels, which will support prices in 2027 even if the strait reopens in 2026 in line with our base-case assumption. Attacks on aluminium plants in the region and controlled shutdowns caused by shipping disruptions have taken 3 million-3.5 million tonnes of annual capacity (4%-4.8% of global) offline, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The revised zinc assumptions reflect recent supply shortfalls, logistical constraints and smelting disruptions, which will reduce mine output by 4.3% and refined output by 0.7% this year according to Wood Mackenzie. These setbacks are likely to subside by 2027, with mine and refined output growing by 6.2% and 1.8%, pushing the market into surplus.

Our gold assumptions remain unchanged.

Short-term demand for platinum-group metals is supported by increased investor interest in alternatives to gold and silver. The higher 2026 assumptions for platinum and rhodium reflect year-to-date prices. We assume the prices will revert to the levels supported by supply and demand fundamentals in the longer term.

The increased thermal coal assumptions for 2026 reflect geopolitical tensions and higher demand from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, as buyers have increased purchases to hedge against potential LNG supply disruptions, particularly benefiting Australian coal. The increased 2027 assumptions reflect Indonesian policy uncertainty following the government’s proposal to centralise coal exports.

The higher short-term nickel assumption reflects strong year-to-date prices, affected by the Indonesian government’s permit quotas and likely reduced production due to sulphur supply constraints reliant on transit through Hormuz.

The revised lithium assumptions reflect tightening supply and demand, supported by stronger demand for energy storage systems and concerns about supply disruptions. Tight inventories across the battery supply chain and rising feedstock cost also support the higher assumptions. However, prices are likely to remain highly volatile, reflecting concerns about a potential demand pullback, along with ongoing supply constraint risks and increasing freight costs.

The increased 2026 cobalt price assumption reflects export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which accounted for about three-quarters of global cobalt output in 2025, and lower production in Indonesia due to sulphur rationalisation. (ends)