Fitch Ratings: Indonesian Coal Companies' Earnings to Weaken in 2H20

(Fitch Ratings-Singapore-28 September 2020) -- Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, says Fitch Ratings in a new report. Average selling prices and volumes for most of the companies will decline in 2H20 as we expect prices to remain subdued and demand to deteriorate for rest of the year.

Fitch revised down its Australia Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions in August 2020, followed by our Indonesian 4,200kcal (ICI4) estimates. Fitch is in the process of revising its rating case forecasts to incorporate our revised coal prices. Lower profitability will likely weaken 2020 credit metrics of most of the companies beyond our negative rating action triggers, although capex and cost flexibilities can help some issuers to manage their liquidity positions and credit profiles.

Most of the rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors saw 1H EBITDA supported by good performance in 1Q while 2Q results were muted due to lower coal prices and a marginal decline in sales volume. Coal prices and volumes in 1H20 were largely in line with our estimates. Coal shipments started slowing towards end-May, limiting the impact on volume during 2Q.

The report "Indonesia Coal Earnings Roundup - 1H20" offers a detailed review of the performance of rated companies in 1H20. (Ends)