Geo Energy outlook turns bullish on volume growth, infrastructure gains, KGI says

By Romel S. Gurky

Singapore-listed  Indonesia-focused coal mining group Geo Energy Resources Ltd is poised for stronger earnings growth as rising coal demand and infrastructure expansion support margins, with KGI Securities maintaining a bullish stance on the stock.

The brokerage reiterated on March 19 its “outperform” rating and raised its target price to S$1.02 from S$0.76, citing improved earnings visibility and the growing contribution from infrastructure assets.

Geo Energy reported 2025 revenue of $562.7 million, up 40% year on year, driven by a 62% increase in sales volume to 12.8 million tonnes. Net profit rose 26% to $27.5 million, despite weaker coal prices and a higher effective tax rate linked to government benchmark pricing.

KGI said the results highlight the company’s ability to scale operations even under pricing and tax pressures, with volume growth offsetting margin compression in the second half of the year.

A key driver of future growth is the $150 million MBJ integrated infrastructure project, which was about 77% complete as of February and is expected to start operations in mid-2026. The project is designed to handle up to 50 million tonnes annually and could deliver transportation cost savings of more than $10 per tonne.

Geo Energy has increased its effective interest in the project to about 71%, positioning it to benefit from recurring, infrastructure-based income as utilisation ramps up over the coming years.

Read also: Geo Energy completes S$15 million share placement

The company has also strengthened its logistics chain through acquisitions of Indonesian shipping firms, enabling greater control over coal transportation and reducing reliance on third parties, which KGI said should improve cost efficiency and operational resilience.

Coal prices have rebounded in early 2026, supported by liquefied natural gas supply disruptions and fuel switching across Asia. KGI expects this recovery, combined with cost efficiencies and infrastructure contributions, to support earnings growth from 2026 onward.

The brokerage said Geo Energy is transitioning into a more integrated mining and infrastructure platform, offering a clearer path to margin expansion and more stable earnings, reinforcing its positive outlook on the stock. 

Editing by Alexander Ginting