Global nickel market seen shifting to deficit in 2026, INSG says
Friday, April 24 2026 - 12:11 PM WIB
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) said the global nickel market is expected to move into a slight deficit in 2026, as demand growth outpaces production amid ongoing market uncertainties.
Following meetings on April 20–21, the group said global primary nickel production is forecast to reach 3.715 million tonnes in 2026, down from 3.880 million tonnes in 2025. Meanwhile, usage is projected to rise to 3.747 million tonnes, resulting in a supply deficit of about 32,000 tonnes.
This compares with a surplus of 283,000 tonnes in 2025, highlighting a tightening market balance.
INSG said global economic growth remained resilient in 2025 but is expected to slow in 2026, partly due to rising geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in the Middle East, which has affected energy markets and inflation expectations.
Read also : INSG forecasts continued growth in nickel market despite global challenges
Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, has introduced tighter mining controls this year, including lower approved production quotas under its Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) system. However, companies are allowed to request revisions based on supply-demand conditions.
The government has also revised its benchmark price mechanism (HPM), effective April 15, raising base prices across ore grades and incorporating cobalt, iron and chromium into the pricing formula for the first time.
On the demand side, INSG said the stainless steel sector continued to expand in 2025 and is expected to grow further in 2026.
However, growth in nickel demand from the electric vehicle battery segment has been slower than anticipated, as lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries gain market share and demand for plug-in hybrid vehicles outpaces fully battery-electric vehicles.
The group noted that its forecasts remain subject to uncertainty, particularly regarding Indonesia’s production levels and the evolving impact of geopolitical developments.
Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak