Global thermal coal exports set for first annual decline since 2020
Wednesday, December 17 2025 - 08:00 AM WIB
Global thermal coal exports are expected to record their first annual decline since 2020 in 2025, driven mainly by weaker demand from key Asian importing countries.
Global thermal coal shipments are forecast at around 945 million tonnes this year, down about 50 million tonnes, or 5%, from 2024, according to data from commodity analytics firm Kpler cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.
The projected decline contrasts with an increase of 4.5 million tonnes in global thermal coal exports last year and a much sharper rise of 65.2 million tonnes in 2023. The downturn in 2025 is largely attributable to lower imports by Asia, the world’s largest coal-importing region.
Asia accounted for about 89% of global thermal coal imports in 2025, equivalent to roughly 841 million tonnes. This represents a decline of around 60 million tonnes compared with imports in 2024.
China remained the world’s largest importer, with thermal coal imports of about 305 million tonnes, followed by India at 157 million tonnes. Japan ranked third with imports of around 100 million tonnes, while South Korea and Vietnam followed with imports of approximately 76 million tonnes and 45 million tonnes, respectively.
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Among major importers, only South Korea and Vietnam increased their coal purchases this year. In contrast, China’s thermal coal imports fell by about 12%, or 43 million tonnes, while India’s imports declined by around 3%, or 4.3 million tonnes, compared with 2024.
More recently, however, both China and India have increased purchases of imported thermal coal ahead of peak winter demand, particularly in China.
In China, domestic coal production rose by a modest 1.5% this year despite government efforts to curb oversupply as part of a broader campaign to rein in industrial overcapacity. In the coal sector, these measures have included stricter mine inspections to ensure compliance with government-issued production quotas.
The inspections contributed to lower coal output in July and August, although production increased during the first half of the year, pushing total annual output higher overall.
Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak