Hormuz shutdown and Qatar LNG halt drive surge in gas and oil prices, ICIS says
Tuesday, March 3 2026 - 04:23 AM WIB
By Romel S. gurky
Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran and subsequent retaliation across the Gulf have disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil and gas prices sharply higher, according to analysis from ICIS.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted, with no LNG tankers transiting since Feb. 28. ICIS said the disruption has brought Gulf oil and LNG exports close to a standstill, affecting around 20% of global LNG supply and about 120 billion cubic metres per year of exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
QatarEnergy has suspended LNG production at the world’s largest export facility following the attacks, further tightening supply.
European gas prices have risen 48% since Friday, based on the ICIS TTF front month benchmark. On Monday morning, the ICIS TTF Early Day assessment for April 2026 stood at $13.94 per million British thermal units, up 26% from the previous close, before rising a further 20% after confirmation of the production halt.
Read also: Global LNG market faces 10MT shortfall in 2025: ICIS
Oil markets also reacted strongly. Brent crude rose more than 8% in early Asian trade on March 2, briefly exceeding $82 per barrel before easing back above $78. West Texas Intermediate traded around $72 per barrel. ICIS said prices have not yet fully reflected a structural supply loss but warned Brent could approach or exceed $100 per barrel if the strait remains closed.
Europe imports a relatively small share of LNG directly from Qatar, but Asia is more dependent on Gulf supply. ICIS said the disruption is likely to increase competition for flexible LNG cargoes and push global prices higher. European gas storage levels were around 30% at the start of February, increasing exposure ahead of the summer refill season.
Petrochemical markets have also reacted. China’s methanol futures rose more than 6% amid concerns over Iranian supply. Iran is the world’s second largest methanol producer.
ICIS said prolonged disruption to Iranian exports and continued shipping and insurance constraints in the Gulf could further reshape pricing dynamics across global energy and chemical markets.
Editing by Alexander Ginting