Indonesia coal exports fall Jan–Nov on weak demand, policy uncertainty

Indonesia’s coal exports fell in the first 11 months of 2025 as demand weakened in key markets such as China and India, while policy uncertainty at home weighed on competitiveness, official data and industry executives said.

Data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) showed coal export volumes declined 3.9% year on year to 354.64 million metric tonnes in January–November, from 369.31 million tonnes in the same period of 2024. Export value fell more sharply, dropping 20.27% to $22.17 billion from $27.8 billion a year earlier.

BPS deputy for distribution and services statistics Pudji Ismartini said the fall in export value reflected both lower shipment volumes and weaker prices. Coal exports in November alone totalled 34.17 million tonnes, down 2.72% from a year earlier, she said at a press briefing.

Coal prices ended 2025 slightly higher on the final trading day, but posted a steep annual decline. Newcastle coal futures closed at $107.5 a tonne on Dec. 31, up 0.8% on the day but down about 14% over the year, amid ample supply and softer global demand.

The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) said the export contraction was mainly driven by rising domestic production in Indonesia’s main destination markets, reducing their import needs.

Read also: Indonesia’s coal export duty still under discussion, start date uncertain

“The decline in coal export performance throughout 2025 was primarily influenced by weaker demand due to increased domestic production in major destination countries such as China and India,” APBI Executive Director Gita Mahyarani said on Tuesday, as quoted by Bloombergtechnoz.com.

She added that policy uncertainty in Indonesia had also pressured the country’s export competitiveness. Indonesia’s coal production in January–November reached 731.5 million tonnes, down 5.8% from 776.7 million tonnes in the same period last year, according to APBI data.

The export slowdown comes as the government prepares to introduce export duties on coal shipments, a plan that has drawn objections from industry. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has said the levy would be tiered, starting at 5% and potentially rising to 8% or 11% depending on coal prices, but the implementing regulation has yet to be issued.

Purbaya has said the duties could apply retroactively from Jan. 1, 2026, although Deputy Energy Minister Yuliot Tanjung said last week the policy had not yet taken effect as the rules were still being finalised.

Globally, coal demand growth is expected to slow despite remaining near record levels. The International Energy Agency forecasts global coal demand will rise marginally to 8.85 billion tonnes in 2025, but peak around 2030 as renewable energy use expands, with China’s coal demand projected to decline gradually over the next five years.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak