Indonesia coking coal exports to India limited despite coke boom, iEnergy says

By Dominikus

Indonesia’s coking coal exports to India remained limited in 2025 and are expected to stay constrained into 2026 despite rising steel demand, underscoring the country’s marginal role in India’s metallurgical coal supply chain, according to a presentation by Ravi Shukla of iEnergy Natural Resources Limited at the 3rd China Coal Import International Summit 2026 organized by SXCoal.

Data presented at the conference showed Indonesia supplied about 2.46 million tonnes of coking coal to India in 2025, accounting for roughly 4.1% of total imports . The figure places Indonesia well behind major suppliers such as Australia, the United States and Russia, which dominate India’s imports of higher-grade hard coking coal.

Market participants expect Indonesia’s coking coal shipments to India to remain broadly stable in 2026, with limited upside as Indian buyers continue to prioritize higher-quality coal for blast furnace efficiency. Demand growth in India’s steel sector is likely to lift overall import volumes, but Indonesia’s share is seen holding at low single digits due to quality constraints and limited high-grade reserves.

Indonesia’s domestic metallurgical coal production reached around 11.8 million tonnes in 2025 and is expected to remain largely flat in 2026 . Most of the output consists of semi-soft coking coal and PCI grades, which are typically used for blending or cost optimization rather than as primary inputs in steelmaking.

In contrast, the country’s downstream sector has expanded rapidly, particularly in coke production. National output rose from 1.80 million tonnes in 2023 to 6.47 million tonnes in 2024 and is projected to reach around 10 million tonnes in 2025, with further growth expected into 2026 as new facilities ramp up operations .

Read also : KinRui and KinXiang report 1.9 million tons of coke sales in H1 2025

Major projects underpinning this expansion include facilities operated by PT Kinrui New Energy Technologies Indonesia, PT Xinxiang New Energy Indonesia, PT Detian Coking Indonesia and PT Risun Wei Shan Indonesia, alongside steel-linked producers such as PT Dexin Steel Indonesia and Krakatau Posco. Most developments are concentrated in Sulawesi, particularly Morowali, where industrial clusters combine coke production with stainless steel and downstream processing.

Despite the rapid build-out, Indonesia remains structurally dependent on imported coking coal feedstock. Australia remains the dominant supplier, while imports from the United States and Canada have increased, reflecting diversification strategies among Indonesian producers . Limited domestic reserves of high-quality hard coking coal and infrastructure constraints continue to restrict upstream expansion.

The divergence between weak coking coal exports and strong coke output growth is expected to persist into 2026, highlighting a structural shift in Indonesia’s role within the global steel supply chain. Rather than competing directly with established mining exporters, the country is increasingly capturing value through downstream processing and regional integration, particularly in supplying coke to India and Southeast Asia.

Industry participants said Indonesia’s expanding coke capacity could continue to influence regional trade flows and pricing dynamics in 2026, although the sustainability of growth will depend on feedstock security, logistics improvements and the alignment between upstream resources and downstream capacity.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak