Indonesia’s aluminium output surpasses domestic demand, says CRU

By Adianto P. Simamora

Indonesia’s primary aluminium capacity has grown beyond domestic consumption, positioning the country as a net exporter, according to data presented by Adhita Widiadhari, Senior Consultant at CRU, during the 2026 Indonesia Metal Outlook Conference on November 6, 2025.

“Indonesia has emerged as a net exporter of primary aluminium, with China, Vietnam, and South Korea as the top export destinations in 2024,” Adhita said. She noted that continued renewal of supply agreements and raw material acquisitions from major producers is expected in 2026.

Read also: Indonesia's aluminium demand to hit 5.1 million tons by 2045

CRU data show that more than 90 percent of alumina production growth will come from capacity expansion in China, while India’s increase will support its domestic smelting capacity. Meanwhile, the growth of supply from Indonesia and China will add to third-party aluminium availability globally. CRU projects third-party production to keep rising through 2026, before stabilizing in 2027.

Large refinery expansion projects are currently ramping up, including Bintan Alumina Indonesia, Borneo Alumina Indonesia, and Borneo Alumindo Prima’s Ketapang refinery. These developments—mostly located near bauxite mines in Riau Islands and West Kalimantan—are expected to raise Indonesia’s metallurgical alumina capacity to 7 million tons per year by 2026.

CRU also cited additional projects under discussion, such as a greenfield refinery by Tianshan Aluminium in Riau Islands. The firm estimates that alumina production gains will temporarily outpace demand by around 300,000 tons over the next four years, before consumption growth restores market balance.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak