Indonesia’s coal exports projected to fall by 20–30 million tons in 2025

By Cepi Setiadi

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) projects coal exports to decline by 20–30 million tons in 2025 compared with last year’s realization.

Surya Herjuna, Director of Coal Development and Business at the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, said last year’s coal exports reached around 500 million tons, and this year’s shipments are expected to remain within that range but slightly lower.

“The forecast suggests exports will fall by about 20 to 30 million tons compared to last year. It’s not because our coal is unsold — the global economy has slowed, particularly in China and India, and domestic demand has also weakened,” Surya told reporters in Jakarta on Wednesday (Nov. 5).

He noted that coal prices remain relatively stable despite the moderation in demand. “Prices fluctuate within a narrow range — just one or two dollars up or down,” he said.

Read also: Indonesia’s coal export volume down 4.7% through September

According to ESDM data, Indonesia’s coal production reached about 585 million tons as of the third quarter of 2025, down from about 593 million tons in the same period last year. “One of the reasons is lower import demand from China, as its domestic production has increased. Meanwhile, India’s imports remain relatively stable,” Surya added.

Despite the slowdown, Surya pointed to the Philippines as an emerging growth market. “The Philippines is becoming a strong market for our coal exports. It can serve as a new backbone besides China and India,” he said, noting that detailed export figures to the country are not yet available.

“Since the Philippines is an archipelagic nation with many power plants spread across its islands, its coal demand will continue to rise,” he concluded.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak