Indonesia to remain tin supply wildcard in 2026
Monday, February 16 2026 - 08:52 AM WIB
By Adianto Simamora
Indonesia is expected to remain a key trigger of global tin price volatility in 2026 as mine supply recovers only partially, according to CRU’s Commodity Outlook 2026 report.
The report notes that global tin mine output recovery has been deferred to 2026 following the delayed restart of mining operations in Wa, Myanmar. Supply is projected to improve gradually as disruptions in Indonesia, Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) begin to ease, returning a meaningful but incomplete share of supply to the market.
However, tin remains structurally exposed to policy-led disruptions. Neither Indonesia nor Myanmar is expected to return to pre-2024 disruption levels, while security risks persist in eastern DRC despite recent peace agreements. As a result, tin is likely to continue trading with a supply risk premium.
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CRU highlights that Indonesia, as the world’s leading tin exporter, continues to shape market direction. Shipment volatility has been driven mainly by regulatory and administrative factors rather than resource constraints.
The report said that following the government’s crackdown on illegal mining and the shift of RKAB licences from three-year to annual approvals, regulatory uncertainty may persist into 2026, raising the risk of renewed disruption in the second quarter.
“Refined tin production is expected to match or slightly exceed 2025 levels, with output trending toward around 60 kt,” the report said.
Editing by Alexander Ginting