Middle East export collapse reshapes global oil flows, WoodMac says
Thursday, April 16 2026 - 08:08 AM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
A sharp drop in Middle East crude exports has triggered a major realignment in global energy trade, with Europe increasingly turning to North American supply while redirecting refined products to Asia, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Middle East crude exports fell by nearly 60% between early February and early March 2026, declining from 18.7 million barrels per day to 5.9 million bpd amid disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, the report said.
Javier Solis, analyst at Wood Mackenzie’s maritime team, said the shift represents a structural change in global energy flows rather than a temporary disruption.
Europe has responded by increasing imports of crude and refined products from North America. U.S. crude imports into Europe reached 1.41 million bpd in late March, while Canadian crude shipments rose to over 1 million bpd, with flows directed to countries including Germany and Ireland.
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Despite maintaining refinery throughput, Europe is facing a structural diesel deficit due to reduced inflows from traditional suppliers. Diesel prices have remained elevated, exceeding €2 per liter, supported by reliance on higher-cost imports and ongoing supply constraints.
At the same time, Europe is exporting surplus gasoline and fuel oil to Asia and Africa. Gasoline exports east of Suez rose nearly 80% week-on-week, while fuel oil shipments have also increased, with Singapore among key destinations.
Asia has emerged as a balancing market, absorbing excess European fuel while also importing record volumes of North American crude. U.S. crude exports to Asia matched flows to Europe at 1.41 million bpd, with India and East Asia among the main buyers.
Wood Mackenzie said the disruption reflects broader risks across global shipping routes, with both the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridors affecting trade flows.
The consultancy expects elevated diesel premiums in Europe to persist through the second half of 2026, as supply constraints continue to reshape global energy markets.
Editing by Alexander Ginting