November ICP falls to $62.83 amid strong dollar, oversupply concerns
Tuesday, December 16 2025 - 06:49 PM WIB
By Ranuh Rafiani Putri
Indonesia’s crude oil benchmark price (ICP) for November 2025 fell to US$62.83 per barrel, down US$0.80 from October’s level, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over a global crude oil oversupply, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (MEMR) said on Tuesday.
The November ICP was set under Ministerial Decree No. 416.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2025 dated Dec. 10, 2025, according to the ministry.
“The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has prompted investors to shift funds into the money market,” Director General of Oil and Gas Laode Sulaeman said in Jakarta, adding that the stronger greenback weighed on global crude prices.
Laode said the decline was also driven by oversupply concerns, including an OPEC+ plan to raise oil output by 137,000 barrels per day starting in December 2025.
According to OPEC’s November report, non-OPEC+ oil production is expected to rise by around 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 to an average of 54.1 million bpd, with growth coming from Brazil, Canada, the United States and Argentina. OPEC+ crude output averaged 43.02 million bpd in October 2025.
Read also: October ICP slips to $63.62
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its November report that global oil inventories surged by 77.7 million barrels, or 2.6 million bpd, to their highest level since July 2021. Global oil supply is projected to increase by 3.1 million bpd in 2025 to an average of 106.3 million bpd.
Another factor weighing on prices was the prospect of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which could ease sanctions on Russia and potentially boost crude supply, Laode said.
Crude prices were also affected by pricing actions from major producers. Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for Asian buyers in December by an average of US$1.20–1.40 per barrel, reflecting ample supply following increased OPEC+ output.
In November, average prices of major crude benchmarks declined compared with October. Dated Brent fell by US$1.10 to US$63.65 per barrel, WTI slipped by US$0.59 to US$59.48, Brent ICE edged down by US$0.29 to US$63.66, and the OPEC Basket dropped by US$0.67 to US$64.47.
Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak