Oil could hit $120 as Middle East tensions threaten key energy facilities, Rystad says
Thursday, March 19 2026 - 03:29 PM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
Oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel or higher if threats to energy infrastructure in the Gulf materialize, according to consultancy Rystad Energy, as escalating tensions raise risks to global supply.
Prices have already climbed above $110 per barrel amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S.-Iran military escalation, tightening market conditions and straining storage capacity across Gulf producers, the firm said in a market update released on Thursday.
Iranian authorities have warned that energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar could be targeted, a threat that Rystad said markets are treating as credible.
“Any such attacks would likely push oil prices up by at least another $10 and significantly disrupt supply,” said Aditya Saraswat, senior vice president at the firm.
At least 700,000 barrels per day of refining capacity could be knocked offline if key facilities across the three countries are hit, affecting supplies of diesel, jet fuel and naphtha simultaneously, Rystad said.
Read also: Middle East oil output could drop 70% if conflict persists, Rystad Energy says
Among the assets at risk are Saudi Arabia’s SAMREF refinery and Jubail petrochemical complex, the UAE’s Al Hosn gas field, and Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery and Mesaieed petrochemical complex. The facilities together account for a significant share of global fuel, petrochemical and liquefied natural gas output.
Rystad warned that damage to critical export infrastructure such as the Yanbu port in Saudi Arabia could remove as much as 5 million to 6 million barrels per day from the market, potentially pushing oil prices toward $150 per barrel.
Qatar faces particular exposure due to the concentration of its liquefied natural gas infrastructure at Ras Laffan, which is linked to the North Field, an extension of Iran’s South Pars gas reservoir. Disruption there could ripple through global LNG markets, with Asia most affected due to its reliance on Qatari supply.
The five facilities identified in the warning account for roughly 20% of global LNG trade, up to 10% of Asia-Pacific naphtha imports and more than 6% of global polyethylene capacity, Rystad said, underscoring the scale of potential disruption.
A prolonged outage could also affect fertilizer and chemical supply chains. The Al Hosn gas field produces around 3 million tonnes of sulfur annually, while the Jubail complex hosts key petrochemical production with limited alternative supply sources.
Rystad said the breadth of exposure across fuels, LNG, chemicals and industrial feedstocks makes the current situation more severe than previous episodes of tension in the Gulf, with potential knock-on effects for energy markets and global industry.
Editing by Alexander Ginting