Oil could hit $135 if Middle East conflict persists, says Rystad Energy
Monday, March 9 2026 - 09:11 PM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
Global oil prices could surge to as high as US$135 per barrel if ongoing Middle East tensions disrupt supply for several months, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy.
Oil prices recently climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time in four years amid escalating conflict in the region and disruptions to supply routes, prompting Group of Seven (G7) countries to hold an emergency meeting to address market volatility.
Janiv Shah, vice president for oil markets at Rystad Energy, said the market is currently facing simultaneous supply disruptions and production constraints in key Middle Eastern producing countries.
“Brent oil prices could reach $135 per barrel if the current situation persists for four months,” Shah said in a market update.
He added that even in a shorter disruption scenario, prices could remain above $110 per barrel for several months due to supply shocks caused by attacks on energy infrastructure and threats to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Read also: Rystad sees energy oversupply, lower prices and rising M&A opportunities in 2026
According to Rystad Energy, Brent crude briefly rose to $116.50 per barrel at market open before retreating to around $104.50 following reports that G7 countries were considering releasing oil reserves to stabilize markets. The price increase represents a nearly 45% rise since the start of the conflict.
The consultancy outlined two possible scenarios. In a two month conflict scenario, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resume by the end of March. Brent prices could exceed $110 per barrel in April before falling to around $70 by the end of the year, resulting in an estimated average price of about $87 per barrel for 2026.
In a longer four month conflict scenario, supply disruptions persist and Brent prices could spike to about $135 per barrel by May before easing to around $85 per barrel by year end, producing an average price of roughly $100 per barrel in 2026.
Prior to the conflict, Rystad Energy had forecast Brent prices to average about $60 per barrel in 2026 due to an expected global supply surplus of about 2.6 million barrels per day.
The firm said the market outlook remains uncertain as geopolitical developments and possible responses such as releases from strategic petroleum reserves or increased output from U.S. shale producers could influence future price movements.
Editing By Alexander Ginting