Oil markets remain volatile after Trump address on Iran conflict, Rystad says
Thursday, April 2 2026 - 03:02 PM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
Global oil markets remained volatile after U.S. President Donald Trump outlined a potential timeline for ongoing military engagement in the Iran conflict, according to a market update from Rystad Energy.
Oil futures initially fell following the address on April 1 before rebounding above $105 per barrel as Trump indicated that U.S. involvement could continue for another two to three weeks.
Rystad Energy Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti said the remarks suggest expectations of a relatively rapid de-escalation, consistent with forecasts of normalization in the Strait of Hormuz beginning by mid-April.
However, he cautioned that the recovery of oil flows would depend on several factors, including security conditions, insurance coverage and operational confidence among shipping operators.
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“Financial markets may move first in pricing in normalization, while physical oil flows take longer to recover,” he said, noting that while shipments could resume within days after hostilities end, returning to typical levels of around 20 million barrels per day could take several weeks.
Rystad said inventories and trade patterns may take longer to rebalance, while production could require months to return to pre-conflict levels.
The firm also warned that risks remain if the conflict extends or damages infrastructure, which could delay reopening of key supply routes and prolong disruptions across global energy markets.
Trump’s remarks also signaled the possibility of further military actions, including threats targeting Iranian infrastructure, while stopping short of indicating deployment of ground forces.
The address offered no clear ceasefire plan, leaving markets to react to uncertainty over the trajectory of the conflict and its impact on global oil supply.
Rystad said the next key signal for markets will be Iran’s response and whether international efforts can secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments.
Editing by Alexander Ginting