OPEC crude output climbs above 30 million barrels per day in May: Survey

OPEC crude production climbed above 30 million barrels per day (million bpd) in May for the first time since October 2004, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed June 8. Production from all eleven members averaged 30.02-million bpd in May, up a net 60,000 bpd from April's 29.96-million bpd, the survey showed.

Excluding Iraq, which does not participate in OPEC's production management system, the ten members with crude output quotas pumped 28.2-million bpd, up 100,000 bpd from April's 28.1-million bpd.

"It's a report like this that really sums up just where OPEC is, and where the Saudis are as well," said John Kingston, global director of oil at Platts. "The Iraqis are struggling; there's no sign of a turnaround in Venezuelan output; only minor increases come from big producers like Iran. Meanwhile, the Saudis put another mildly significant increase on to the market. This appears to be the status quo, with the only significant change likely to come if the Saudis, down the road, feel they need to tap their surge capacity."

Increases totaling 180,000 bpd from Algeria, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia were offset by 120,000 bpd in declines from Iraq, the UAE and Venezuela. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait each pushed out an extra 50,000 bpd, with smaller boosts of 30,000 bpd each from Iran--where Shell has been building up production from the Soroush and Nowruz fields--and Nigeria and 10,000 bpd each from Algeria and Libya.

Iraqi production and exports have been severely constrained by infrastructure problems in the south, while security concerns in the north continue to overshadow any prospect of regular exports through Turkey. UAE production was down around 2.4-million bpd in May as field maintenance programs got under way. Venezuelan production, yet to recover from a crippling two- month strike in the winter of 2002/2003, dropped back to around 2.65-million bpd from 2.68-million bpd in April.

The May output estimates for the OPEC-10 put actual output some 600,000 bpd above the group's 27.5-million bpd ceiling agreed in March in Isfahan. Next week's OPEC meeting in Vienna could see the ceiling increased to keep pace with actual output, according to OPEC's Kuwaiti president Sheikh Ahmed Fahed al-Sabah who said Tuesday he would propose that the ceiling be raised by 500,000 bpd if prices remained high. Such an increase would bring the ceiling in line with actual output, he said. (*)

Country-by-country breakdown of production with figures in millions of bpd:

Country	May 05	Apr 05	Mar 05	Feb 05	Jan 05	Dec 04	Quota
Algeria	1.310	1.300	1.300	1.290	1.290	1.290	0.878
Indonesia	0.950	0.950	0.950	0.960	0.960	0.960	1.425
Iran	3.980	3.950	3.980	3.930	3.900	3.900	4.037
Iraq	1.820	1.860	1.850	1.850	1.850	1.840	N/A
Kuwait	2.550	2.500	2.450	2.430	2.400	2.420	2.207
Libya	1.630	1.620	1.620	1.610	1.610	1.630	1.473
Nigeria	2.400	2.370	2.350	2.350	2.300	2.280	2.265
Qatar	0.780	0.780	0.780	0.780	0.780	0.800	0.713
Saudi Arabia	9.550	9.500	9.400	9.250	9.100	9.500	8.937
UAE	2.400	2.450	2.450	2.450	2.400	2.480	2.400
Venezuela	2.650	2.680	2.700	2.680	2.700	2.650	3.165
Total	30.020	29.960	29.830	29.580	29.290	29.750	N/A
OPEC 10 (excluding Iraq)	28.200	28.100	27.980	27.730	27.440	27.910	27.500