OPEC output down 380,000 BPD in June: Survey

OPEC's eleven members, including Iraq, pumped an average 26.23 million barrels per day (BPD) of crude in June, down 380,000 BPD from May's 26.61 million BPD, according to a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials released Thursday.

Excluding Iraq, which is still struggling to restore output to pre-war levels, the ten members with production quotas pumped 25.77 million BPD, down 580,000 BPD from their May average of 26.35 million BPD and just 370,000 BPD above their collective ceiling which came into effect at the beginning of June.

Despite de facto oil minister Thamir Ghadban's prediction that crude output would reach 1.5 million BPD by the end of June, Iraq managed to boost net average production by only 200,000 BPD to 460,000 BPD, thanks to looting, sabotage on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, and lack of refining capacity.

"Crude prices remain strong, with Iraq struggling to increase production and the rest of OPEC reining in output in June," said Peter Zipf, editor-in-chief of Platts Oilgram News. "These factors would appear to leave the cartel with a favored option of holding the line when it meets again in just three weeks."

The Iraqis have now sold some 18 million barrels of crude in two tenders, the more recent of which was awarded this week and consisted entirely of Basrah Light to be lifted from Gulf port Mina al-Bakr. Two million barrels of the previous tender were also Basrah Light from the Gulf. The rest of the crude sold in the first tender was Kirkuk-produced before the war and stored in tanks at Turkish Mediterranean port Ceyhan. Sabotage has prevented the Iraqis from resuming crude flows from Kirkuk along the pipeline to Ceyhan.

Nigeria managed to boost output back above 2 million BPD for the first time since February after ethnic unrest in the Niger Delta reduced production to as low as 1.85 million BPD in April. It averaged 2.1 million BPD in June, up 180,000 BPD from May's 1.92 million BPD.

Saudi Arabia accounted for the biggest single cut, reducing output by 480,000 BPD to 8.62 million BPD, although it needs to shave output by a further 360,000 BPD odd to reach its 8.256 million BPD quota. Kuwait also reduced production by a substantial volume, cutting by 160,000 BPD to average 2.16 million BPD in June, although it failed to bring production within its 2.038 million BPD quota. Other smaller cuts came from Indonesia, Libya, Qatar, the UAE and Venezuela.

Participants in the survey were generally pessimistic about Venezuela, whose production fell by 50,000 BPD in June to 2.62 million BPD, a figure some 300,000 BPD below the country's 2.923 million BPD OPEC quota.

Only Venezuela, Iran and Indonesia produced within their quotas. (*)

Country-by-country breakdown of production with figures in millions of BPD:
Country	June 03	May 03	Apr 03	Mar 03	Feb 03 Quota	June 03 Quota
Algeria	1.160	1.140	1.120	1.110	0.782	0.811
Indonesia	1.020	1.030	1.030	1.040	1.270	1.317
Iran	3.690	3.680	3.680	3.760	3.597	3.729
Iraq	0.460	0.260	0.050	1.440	N/A	N/A
Kuwait	2.160	2.320	2.300	2.300	1.966	2.038
Libya	1.420	1.430	1.420	1.410	1.312	1.360
Nigeria	2.100	1.920	1.850	1.930	2.018	2.092
Qatar	0.730	0.760	0.760	0.760	0.635	0.658
Saudi Arabia	8.620	9.100	9.200	9.460	7.963	8.256
UAE	2.250	2.300	2.280	2.290	2.138	2.217
Venezuela	2.620	2.670	2.670	2.280	2.819	2.923
Total	26.230	26.610	26.360	27.780	N/A	N/A
OPEC 10 (excluding IRAQ)	25.770	26.350	26.310	26.340	24.500	25.400