OPEC output eases to 26.91 million BPD in November: Survey

OPEC output of crude oil decreased to 26.91 million barrels per day (BPD) in November, marginally down from October's 26.93 million BPD, according to a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials released Monday.

Cheating among the ten OPEC members bound by output quotas rose by 30,000 BPD to 2.81 million BPD in November. The survey showed that these ten countries produced 24.51 million BPD over the month against a ceiling of 21.7 million BPD, up from October's 24.48 million BPD. Iraq, whose crude exports are controlled by the United Nations, does not participate in OPEC output accords.

"The level of overproduction is less important, for now, than the fact that the market clearly needs this oil. Prices have fallen from their highs, but they have hardly plunged," said John Kingston, Global Director of Oil for Platts. "The discrepancy between actual production levels and official quotas, however, does set up the potential for significant conflict within OPEC should prices retreat and production need to be cut."

With the level of cheating having risen steadily through the year, and with prices holding around the mid-point of OPEC's $22-28/bbl targeted price band, there is talk within OPEC of raising official quotas at next week's December 12, 2002 ministerial conference. According to Platts' sources, this move would legitimize part of the overproduction and provide a more realistic level from which to cut output next spring, assuming demand for oil drops as expected after the winter. OPEC delegates say such an outcome is possible, but insist that it is not guaranteed.

Of the ten OPEC members bound by quotas, only Indonesia produced within quota. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya and the UAE all reduced production by a combined 200,000 BPD.

Saudi Arabia and Nigeria overproduced by 150,000 BPD and 30,000 BPD respectively.

Iraqi volumes fell in November, characterized by large swings in weekly export volumes reported by the United Nations.

Country-by-country breakdown of production with figures in millions of BPD:

Country	Nov 02	Oct 02	Sept 02	Aug 02	Quota
Algeria	0.950	0.950	0.920	0.870	0.693
Indonesia	1.100	1.100	1.120	1.120	1.125
Iran	3.490	3.590	3.380	3.450	3.186
Iraq	2.400	2.450	1.950	1.650	N/A
Kuwait	1.960	1.980	1.940	1.920	1.741
Libya	1.350	1.360	1.350	1.340	1.162
Nigeria	2.020	1.990	1.990	1.950	1.787
Qatar	0.690	0.690	0.680	0.650	0.562
Saudi Arabia	8.050	7.900	7.720	7.650	7.053
UAE	2.000	2.020	2.000	1.990	1.894
Venezuela	2.900	2.900	2.860	2.800	2.497
Total	26.910	26.930	25.910	25.390
OPEC 10 (excluding IRAQ)	24.510	24.480	23.960	23.740	21.700