OPEC output up 250,000 BPD in March: Survey

OPEC output up 250,000 BPD in March: Survey

OPEC's ten output-cutting members produced 22.94 million barrels a day (MBPD) of crude in March, according to OPEC and oil industry officials surveyed by Platts.

The survey showed that the ten countries, excluding Iraq, which does not have an OPEC quota, raised production by 250,000 BPD in March, leaving them 1.24 MBPD in excess of their self-imposed output ceiling.

``The market will be looking at the embargo announced by Iraq, and whether it in fact holds,'' said John Kingston, Platts Global Director of Oil. ``But the turmoil in Venezuela may ultimately pose a bigger factor in OPEC's production levels. It may be that OPEC will report significantly greater compliance in April, solely on the back of a presumed decline in Venezuela because of that country's ongoing labor strife. However, the jury is still out over whether other countries will step in to fill any void left by Venezuela or by Iraq.''

Including Iraq, which exports oil under the United Nations' oil-for-aid program, OPEC pumped a total of 25.45 MBPD in March, up from 25.19 MBPD in February.

Despite erratic output levels over the month--ranging from as low as 6.7-mil barrels for the week beginning March 16, to as high as 16.5 million barrels for the week beginning March 23--Iraqi production rose slightly, from 2.5 MBPD in February to 2.51 MBPD in March.

All OPEC members increased production in March except Indonesia, whose output slipped slightly from 1.15 MBPD in February to 1.14 MBPD in March.

Even Indonesia, however, whose declining output capacity had left it unable to meet some of its more recent OPEC quotas, exceeded its current quota.

The biggest single increase came from Saudi Arabia, which boosted output by 130,000 BPD to pump an average 7.37 MBPD over the month against a quota of 7.053 MBPD, the survey showed. Iran hiked output by 50,000 BPD to produce an average 3.38 MBPD against a quota of 3.186 MBPD.

Some analysts expect higher levels of leakage in April following Iraq's announcement April 8 that it would suspend exports for 30 days to protest Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories. Iraq exported 2.36 MBPD in the week to March 29, according to the UN.

OPEC's 21.7 MBPD ceiling is intended to run through June, with the next OPEC meeting scheduled for June 26 when ministers will review output policy. Some ministers have suggested in recent weeks that demand for oil is likely to be such that the cartel may not be in a position to raise output after June.

Senior delegates have said that Iraq's export stoppage, even if it is sustained for a month, is not a huge loss to world markets given the current supply/demand picture.

But leading analysts do not agree, saying OPEC will be under pressure to make up for the Iraqi barrels.

Country-by-country breakdown of production/Figures in millions of BPD

Country	Mar ?02	Feb ?02	Jan ?02	1-Jan	Dec ?01
			Qouta	Quota
Algeria????	0.8	0.79	0.8	0.693	0.81
Indonesia??	1.14	1.15	1.15	1.125	1.16
Iran???????	3.38	3.33	3.28	3.186	3.47
Iraq???????	2.51	2.5	2.26	? N/A	2.02
Kuwait?????	1.85	1.84	1.85	1.741	1.95
Libya??????	1.29	1.28	1.27	1.162	1.31
Nigeria????	1.97	1.96	2	1.787	2.15
Qatar??????	0.6	0.59	0.59	0.562	0.63
Saudi Arabia	7.37	7.24	7.3	7.053	7.6
UAE????????	1.96	1.95	1.95	1.894	2.03
Venezuela	2.58	2.56	2.56	2.497	2.7
Total	25.45	25.19	25.01	?	25.83
OPEC 10 (excluding Iraq)	22.94	22.69	22.75	21.701	23.81