OPEC output up 50,000 barrels per day in September: Survey

OPEC's 11 members produced an average 30.31 million barrels per day (mmbpd) of crude in September, 50,000 bpd more than August's 30.26-mmbpd, as Iraqi production recovered towards the 2-mmbpd mark, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed October 7.

Excluding Iraq, however, production from the ten members with now notional crude output quotas dipped by 50,000 bpd to 28.32-mmbpd, the survey showed.

The biggest single increase came from Iraq, whose September production averaged 1.99-mmbpd, up from 1.89-mmbpd in August. Other small increases of 10,000 bpd each came from Saudi Arabia, whose output averaged 9.56-mmbpd, and the UAE, which pumped 2.48-mmbpd.

"From the consumer point of view, this is discouraging in that about the only thing to get excited about is a minor increase in Iraqi production," said John Kingston, global director of oil at Platts. "It's heartening because Iraq looked a few weeks ago like it might have started a downward spiral. But with so much crude production lost from the two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, this report makes clear that there just isn't that much for OPEC to do to alleviate any shortages in the short term."

Iranian production, which had climbed to 4-mmbpd in July and August, fell back by 50,000 bpd to 3.95-mmbpd. Some industry officials said it was becoming increasingly apparent that Iran had reached its current production limit and had joined the ranks of member countries unable to pump their full quotas. The latest estimate of Iranian production leaves Tehran under- producing its 4.11-mmbpd quota by 160,000 bpd.

Iranian underproduction was significantly less than that of Indonesia and Venezuela, however, which showed output declines of 10,000 bpd each in September to 930,000 bpd and 2.61-mmbpd respectively. Indonesia under- produced its 1.451-mmbpd quota by 521,000 bpd while Venezuela under-produced its 3.223-mmbpd quota by 613,000 bpd.

OPEC's current crude output ceiling is set at 28-mmbpd, but the group has encouraged overproduction beyond this level in hope of cooling down overheating oil prices.

That has proved a vain hope, not least because - with the exception of Saudi Arabia - most OPEC member countries are unable to pump more than they are currently producing. Between April and September, OPEC has increased production by just 350,000 bpd despite the price surge that took US West Texas Intermediate crude futures from just under $51/bbl on May 2 to more than $70/bbl in late August as Hurricane Katrina hit the southern US. WTI was trading Friday between $61 and $62/bbl - still more than $10/bbl higher than prices of early May. (*)

Country-by-country breakdown of production with figures in millions of bpd:

Country

Sep 05

Aug 05

Jul 05

Jun 05

May 05

Apr 05

Quota

Algeria

1.350

1.340

1.330

1.310

1.300

0.894

Indonesia

0.930

0.940

0.950

1.451

Iran

3.950

4.000

3.990

3.980

3.950

4.110

Iraq

1.990

1.890

1.960

1.850

1.820

1.860

N/A

Kuwait

2.550

2.500

2.247

Libya

1.650

1.630

1.620

1.500

Nigeria

2.450

2.400

2.370

2.306

Qatar

0.790

0.780

0.726

Saudi Arabia

9.560

9.550

9.500

9.550

9.500

9.099

UAE

2.480

2.470

2.450

2.430

2.400

2.450

2.444

Venezuela

2.610

2.620

2.630

2.640

2.650

2.680

3.223

Total

30.310

30.260

30.250

30.100

30.020

29.960

N/A

OPEC 10 (excluding Iraq)

28.320

28.370

28.290

28.250

28.200

28.100

28.000

OPEC output up 50,000 barrels per day in September: Survey

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