OPEC output up 520,000 BPD in October: Survey

Overproduction by OPEC's member nations rose to 2.78-million barrels per day (MBPD) in October, up from 2.26-MBPD in September, according to Platts survey.

"The extent of overproduction has grown quite a bit recently," said Peter Zipf, Editor-in-Chief of Platts' Oilgram News. "It used to be more subtle, but now we're seeing extreme overproduction. According to comments by OPEC officials last week the market is absorbing the overproduction, and without it prices would be much higher."

The survey estimated that total output by the OPEC ten at 24.48-MBPD, is up by 520,000 BPD from September's 23.96-MBPD. Including Iraq, which accounted for half of October's increase, OPEC produced 26.93-MBPD in October, an increase of 1.02-MBPD from September's 25.91-MBPD.

"At this point, OPEC has decided not to make any changes to its quota system," said Zipf. "However, since some members want their quotas increased, this is something they'll have to confront next year."

Iraq's production for October was the highest since March at 2.45-MBPD Iraqi exports have been increasing since the end of the summer following Baghdad's move to phase out an illegal surcharge that had deterred buyers.

Iranian volumes also saw an increase, from 3.38-MBPD in September to 3.59-MBPD in October. Saudi Arabia boosted output from 7.72-MBPD in September to 7.9-MBPD in October. Other smaller increases came from Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, the UAE and Venezuela.

Algerian output rose further in October to average 950,000 BPD. Participants in the survey largely dismissed any suggestion that Algeria was yet capable of producing more than 1-MBPD. Algeria has asked OPEC to raise its quota from 693,000 BPD to 1.1-MBPD. Oil minister Chakib Khelil said in September that production was already at this level.

Indonesia was the only country to show an output decrease, and to stay within its output quota.

Country-by-country breakdown of production with figures in millions of BPD:

Country	Oct 2002	Sep02	Aug02	Jul02	Jun02	Quota
Algeria	0.950	0.920	0.870	0.860	0.850	0.693
Indonesia	1.100	1.120	1.120	1.110	1.130	1.125
Iran	3.590	3.380	3.450	3.390	3.400	3.186
Iraq	2.450	1.950	1.650	1.700	1.620	N/A
Kuwait	1.980	1.940	1.920	1.900	1.890	1.741
Libya	1.360	1.350	1.340	1.330	1.320	1.162
Nigeria	1.990	1.990	1.950	1.920	1.870	1.787
Qatar	0.690	0.680	0.650	0.640	0.640	0.562
Saudi Arabia	7.900	7.720	7.650	7.650	7.490	7.053
UAE	2.020	2.000	1.990	1.980	1.960	1.894
Venezuela	2.900	2.860	2.800	2.720	2.670	2.497
Total	26.930	25.910	25.390	25.200	24.840	-
OPEC 10 (excl IRAQ)	24.480	23.960	23.740	23.500	23.220	21.700