OPEC output up 730,000 barrels per day in July: Survey

OPEC's eleven members, including Iraq, pumped an average 29.67 million barrels per day (MMBPD) of crude in July, 730,000 BPD higher than June's 28.94 MMBPD, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed August 10. Platts is the energy information division of The McGraw-Hill Companies.

Excluding Iraq, which does not participate in OPEC production accords, the ten members with output quotas produced an average 27.72 MMBPD, an increase of 480,000 BPD from their June average of 27.24 MMBPD and more than 1.7 MMBPD in excess of the 26 MMBPD official output ceiling which came into effect at the beginning of August.

"Now the focus turns from what the countries are producing relative to their quota and moves to what they are producing relative to their capacity," said John Kingston, global director of oil at Platts. "A few hundred thousand barrels per day might be carved out here and there from countries other than Saudi Arabia, but it's Riyadh that will make the difference."

The biggest single increase-300,000 BPD-came from Saudi Arabia which boosted its output to 9.4 MMBPD in July from 9.1 MMBPD in June. The Saudis have pledged to increase production to their full capacity of 10.5MMBPD- which they say can be reached quickly-if this proves necessary.

"Estimates of Saudi spare capacity have been put as low as 500,000 BPD and as much as 1.5 to 2 MMBPD," Kingston said. "Whatever the level, the fact is that the world's capacity to produce oil is being asked for a yield that it has probably never seen. And with disruptions this week in Iraq, possible turmoil in Venezuela this weekend during the Chavez recall vote and the normal crises that have beset oil for many months, the market is living on the edge. It will take a downturn in demand - and that generally only occurs with a weak global economy -- to put a little more flexibility into a very tightly drawn rubber band."

Iraqi production recovered to 1.95 MMBPD in July after sabotage on southern pipelines sent output falling to 1.7 MMBPD in June from 1.9 MMBPD in May.

Only Indonesia, whose crude output is currently in decline, saw production fall. Kuwait, Nigeria and Qatar maintained production at June levels. Other countries increased output by between 10,000 BPD and 60,000 BPD. (*)

Country	July 04	June 04	May 04	Apr 04	Quota-Apr 1	Quota-Jul 1	Quota-Aug 1
Algeria	1.250	1.200	1.170	1.150	0.750	0.814	0.830
Indonesia	0.960	0.970	0.970	0.980	1.218	1.322	1.347
Iran	3.980	3.960	3.920	3.880	3.450	3.744	3.817
Iraq	1.950	1.700	1.900	2.380	N/A	N/A	N/A
Kuwait	2.350	2.350	2.300	2.210	1.886	2.046	2.087
Libya	1.590	1.540	1.470	1.460	1.258	1.365	1.392
Nigeria	2.400	2.400	2.350	2.350	1.936	2.101	2.142
Qatar	0.780	0.780	0.760	0.740	0.609	0.661	0.674
Saudi Arabia	9.400	9.100	8.600	8.300	7.638	8.288	8.450
UAE	2.390	2.380	2.260	2.100	2.051	2.225	2.269
Venezuela	2.620	2.560	2.560	2.520	2.704	2.934	2.992
Total	29.670	28.940	28.260	28.070	N/A	N/A	N/A
OPEC 10 (excluding Iraq)	27.720	27.240	26.360	25.690	23.500	25.500	26.000