OPEC output up 80,000 barrels per day in August: Survey

Total OPEC crude output edged up by just 80,000 barrels per day in August to an average 29.75 million barrels per day (MMBPD), constrained by a new spate of export difficulties for Iraq, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed September 10.

Excluding Iraq, however, the so-called OPEC-10 produced an average 27.97- MMBPD in August, an increase of 250,000 BPD from July's 27.72-MMBPD.

Saudi Arabia maintained production at the higher levels aimed at cooling down steaming oil prices, pushing output up by a further 100,000 BPD to 9.5- MMBPD. Indications from the kingdom earlier this week suggested that the Saudis planned to maintain crude volumes around the 9.4-9.5-MMBPD level in September.

"While consumers can certainly feel encouraged by the continuing surge in OPEC output, that upward movement keeps bringing the world closer to 100% of capacity utilization," said John Kingston, global director of oil at Platts. "This growth in output is not showing signs of building significant amounts of inventory, and it raises the question of where the spare supply is going to come from should there be a disruption or a colder than average winter. It is important to note that we are about to begin the fourth quarter-traditionally the period of highest global demand for oil."

Iraqi output, which had averaged 1.95-MMBPD in July, fell by 170,000 BPD to average just 1.78-MMBPD. The only other country to see its volumes fall was Indonesia, which pumped an average 950,000 BPD over the month, down from 960,000 BPD July. Iran and Nigeria maintained output at July levels of 3.98- MMBPD and 2.4-MMBPD respectively.

Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, the UAE and Venezuela provided smaller increases ranging between 10,000 BPD in the case of Algeria and Qatar and 60,000 BPD in the case of Kuwait.

With oil prices remaining stubbornly high, OPEC has encouraged its members to open the taps, and the latest output boosts have taken OPEC-10 production close to 2-MMBPD above their 26-MMBPD ceiling.

There has been some talk of raising the ceiling to bring the ceiling and quotas in line with actual output when OPEC meets next Wednesday in Vienna. But a senior OPEC delegate told Platts September 9 that there was a "strong possibility" the cartel would simply maintain the status quo in order to avoid any disagreement. (*)

Country	Aug 04	July 04	June 04	May 04	Apr 04	Quota-Jul 1	Quota-Aug 1
Algeria	1.260	1.250	1.200	1.170	1.150	0.814	0.830
Indonesia	0.950	0.960	0.970	0.970	0.980	1.322	1.347
Iran	3.980	3.980	3.960	3.920	3.880	3.744	3.817
Iraq	1.780	1.950	1.700	1.900	2.380	N/A	N/A
Kuwait	2.380	2.350	2.350	2.300	2.210	2.046	2.087
Libya	1.610	1.590	1.540	1.470	1.460	1.365	1.392
Nigeria	2.400	2.400	2.400	2.350	2.350	2.101	2.142
Qatar	0.790	0.780	0.780	0.760	0.740	0.661	0.674
Saudi Arabia	9.500	9.400	9.100	8.600	8.300	8.288	8.450
UAE	2.450	2.390	2.380	2.260	2.100	2.225	2.269
Venezuela	2.650	2.620	2.560	2.560	2.520	2.934	2.992
Total	29.750	28.670	28.940	28.260	28.070	N/A	N/A
OPEC 10 (excluding Iraq)	27.970	27.720	27.240	26.360	25.690	25.500	26.000