Prabowo sets higher 2027 ICP outlook, trims gas lifting target

By Pandu Setiabudi

President Prabowo Subianto on Wednesday announced Indonesia’s 2027 macroeconomic assumptions, including higher projected crude oil prices and lower gas lifting targets.

The assumptions were presented during the 19th plenary session of the House of Representatives for the fifth sitting period of the 2025–2026 legislative year.

The government projected Indonesia’s crude oil price (ICP) at between US$70 and US$95 per barrel in 2027, higher than the US$70 per barrel assumption set in the 2026 state budget.

Oil lifting in 2027 is targeted at 602,000–615,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd), broadly in line with the 2026 state budget assumption of 610,000 bopd.

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Meanwhile, the government expects gas lifting to decline to 934,000–977,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2027, compared with the 2026 assumption of 984,000 boepd.

Beyond the energy sector, the government projected the rupiah exchange rate at Rp16,800–17,500 per US dollar in 2027, weaker than the Rp16,500 assumption in the 2026 budget.

Indonesia’s economic growth is targeted at 5.8%–6.5% in 2027, above the 5.4% target for 2026, while inflation is projected at 1.5%–3.5%.

The yield on 10-year government bonds (SBN) is assumed at 6.5%–7.3%, compared with the 2026 assumption of 6.9%.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak