Regional LNG: LNG ?reemerges? as Asia-Pacific gas source: Report
Friday, April 15 2005 - 04:30 AM WIB
Speaking at the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association's annual conference in Perth, Allison Ball of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, said there are also new markets emerging in India, China, the Philippines, New Zealand, and North America.
Ball said Asia-Pacific LNG imports are predicted to double by 2015, creating intense competition among existing suppliers to retain their markets.
She predicted there would also be a key role for new projects. Australian LNG export capacity, for instance, has the potential to more than quadruple in size.
Demand for gas in the Asia-Pacific region has increased by a factor of four since 1980 due to the increased emphasis on environmental issues, the technology uptake of combined-cycle natural gas-fueled electric power plants, and commercialization of abundant gas reserves. Energy security and fuel diversification policies in the region have also been factors.
Ball said LNG shipments to Asia-Pacific are expected to reach 119 million tons by 2010 and rise to 150 million tons by 2015. The high side of the estimates could be 163 million tons by 2015, she added.
Japan will remain the largest recipient and one of the most important markets, with South Korea coming in second. But the fastest growing markets will be India and China, where imports are predicted to be 11 million tons/year and 18 million tons/year, respectively, by 2015.
Ball said that by 2010 about three quarters of LNG imports by Asia-Pacific countries will come from existing contracted supplies, leaving 21 million tons for which new supplies will have to be procured. By 2015, uncontracted LNG demand will rise to 76-89 million tons, which represents 51 percent of projected demand.
Japan will account for nearly one third of uncontracted LNG demand by 2015.(*)