RKAB disruptions, hauling ban pressure domestic coal supply in early 2026

By Cepi Setiadi

Indonesia’s coal market in early 2026 is facing significant supply-side pressure, driven mainly by administrative bottlenecks and a policy banning coal transportation via public roads in South Sumatra. Yudhi Putro, Coal Market Analyst and Director of PT Kaldera Energi Nusantara (KEN), a coal supplier company, said at least three key factors are currently shaping domestic coal market conditions.

First, supply disruptions are emerging from small- to medium-scale mining operations. According to Yudhi, a clear performance polarization has developed among coal producers. Companies holding Coal Contract of Work (PKP2B) and Special Mining Business Licenses (IUPK) have generally demonstrated stronger operational resilience, maintaining relatively stable supply levels.

“In contrast, most holders of Production Operation Mining Business Licenses (IUP OP) are facing serious challenges, particularly related to the administrative processing of the 2026 RKAB and the fulfillment and approval of reclamation guarantees. These issues have led to the suspension of operations at a number of mines,” Yudhi told Petromindo.com on Tuesday (Jan. 20).

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The second factor stems from the impact of South Sumatra’s policy banning coal hauling through public roads, which has resulted in substantial supply disruptions. “Based on our field monitoring, we estimate that around 50–60% of coal supply flows from South Sumatra have been disrupted,” he said.

The disruption has affected not only supply volumes but also supply security, particularly for PLN-owned power plants and domestic industrial consumers. Affected regions include Sumatra, West Kalimantan, as well as West Java and Banten, which have long relied on coal supplies from South Sumatra mines.

Looking ahead to 2026, Yudhi expects Indonesia’s coal industry to face a severe resilience test. Ongoing administrative uncertainties, coupled with the prospect of a national coal production cap in the range of 600–700 million tons, pose significant structural challenges for industry players. “2026 will be a stress test for the national coal industry,” he said.

Based on KEN’s fundamental analysis, taking into account export market potential and domestic demand, Indonesia’s real coal demand could reach an estimated 730–740 million tons. Should production limits be strictly enforced, Yudhi warned that a substantial supply gap could emerge. “Such a supply gap may not necessarily push prices higher as expected, as supply disruptions could instead undermine overall market stability,” he concluded.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak