Shipping’s 25-year bets clash with a two-month reality as Asia takes center stage

By Rikordias Siahaan

The global shipping industry is being forced to make billion-dollar, decades-long investment decisions in a market where visibility has shrunk to just weeks, as geopolitical tensions, fuel volatility and uncertain climate policies reshape trade flows across Asia.

Executives speaking at the Keynote Panel: The Maritime State of Play and What’s Next for Asia at Asia Pacific Maritime 2026 described an industry navigating what one moderator likened to “choppy seas,” balancing long-term decarbonization goals with immediate operational disruptions.

The contradiction is stark: ships typically operate for 20 to 25 years, requiring long-term capital commitments, yet companies are increasingly planning only months ahead due to market instability.

“We internally are looking at our results only up to two months, because anything further than that is very difficult,” said SK Lim, Managing Director for Pacific at G2 Ocean, during the discussion.

That short-term uncertainty is being driven in part by geopolitical risks, particularly in energy supply routes. Fuel prices have surged sharply, with very low sulfur fuel oil in Singapore more than doubling in recent weeks, according to panelists, raising concerns about both cost and availability.

“The longer this persists, the thought of having fuel shortages is quite scary,” Lim said, referring to tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. “Imagine vessels that are heading to a port to take on bunker, and they can’t find sufficient fuel. Trade stops.”

At the same time, the industry faces mounting pressure to invest in greener technologies, even as the economics remain uncertain. New vessels powered by alternative fuels can cost 20 percent to 30 percent more than conventional ships, while customers remain reluctant to absorb higher freight costs.

“When you want to invest in the next advanced technology, when it costs 20-30% more than the current technology, it’s very, very difficult,” said Mohamed Safwan Othman, President and Group Managing Director of Dinastia Jati Group and Chairman of Malaysia Shipowners’ Association (MASA) in the same occasion. “At the end of the day, the charterers always want the cheapest available assets.”

This tension between sustainability and commercial viability has been compounded by delays and uncertainty in global regulatory frameworks, particularly at the International Maritime Organization, leaving shipowners hesitant to commit to a single technological pathway.

Read also : Indonesian tankers cleared by Iran to exit Strait of Hormuz

Even large operators are taking a cautious approach. Many are opting for dual-fuel vessels, seen as a transitional solution while the industry awaits clearer signals on fuel infrastructure and regulatory direction.

Beyond economics, executives said the nature of risk itself is evolving. Jotaro Tamura described a shift in priorities, where geopolitical instability and operational safety are becoming as critical as environmental targets.

“So maybe now it’s GSE on top of ESG,” said Jotaro Tamura, Senior Managing Executive Officer, Mitsui OSK Lines, referring to geopolitics, safety and efficiency layered over environmental, social and governance goals.

The result is an industry increasingly defined by its ability to adapt in real time. Companies are rerouting vessels, optimizing fuel consumption and relying more heavily on data to make operational decisions, while maintaining long-term investment strategies.

“Disruption and volatility is just the new norm,” said Ben Pike, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Swire Shipping. “We have our long-term strategies, and then we take a tactical approach to deal with the day-to-day issues.”

Technology is playing a growing role in bridging that gap. Improved satellite connectivity and real-time data collection are enabling operators to make faster decisions on routing, fuel use and procurement, replacing what was once largely experience-based judgment.

“In the past, it was a little bit like wild guess,” said Joey Chua, Chair, Digitalisation Committee, Singapore Shipping Association (SSA). “Now, we have actually married experience with data, and that gives us leverage,” Chua added.

Still, the broader challenge remains unresolved. The industry must continue investing in assets that will define its emissions profile for decades, even as the rules governing those emissions remain in flux and the market environment shifts rapidly.

For many, the answer lies in resilience rather than certainty. Shipping has historically operated under risk, and executives say that culture of adaptability is now its greatest strength. “We are in a risky business,” said Roine Ahlquist, CCO, Wilhelmsen in the same panel. “We continuously adjust to the operational and commercial realities,” Ahlquiest added.

As global trade patterns evolve, Asia is emerging as the focal point of that adjustment. With growing intra-regional trade, a young workforce and expanding demand, the region is increasingly shaping both the direction and the resilience of the maritime sector.

Yet the central dilemma persists. The industry must place long-term bets on a cleaner future while navigating a present defined by volatility.

As one executive put it during the discussion, the maritime sector may still reach its destination, but the journey is becoming harder to predict.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak