Survey: OPEC Feb output at 27.091 million BPD

Crude oil output by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 1.430 million barrels per day (BPD) in February from January to 27.091 million BPD, with the bulk of the increase coming from the group's largest producer Saudi Arabia, and also from Venezuela, a survey by Dow Jones Newswires found Tuesday.

The survey showed that crude oil production by the OPEC-10, excluding Iraq, rose by 1.533 million BPD in February versus January to 24.701 million BPD. Iraq, whose exports are controlled by the U.N., isn't part of any OPEC output agreement.

The latest OPEC estimates by Dow Jones also show that the OPEC-10 were 201,000 BPD over their current OPEC output target of 24.500 million BPD.

The survey found that Saudi Arabia pumped some 8.733 million BPD of crude oil in February compared to 8.367 million BPD in January. The latest figures also show that OPEC's defacto leader was heavily over its current OPEC output allowance of 7.963 million BPD in February.

Oil analysts expressed no surprise at the extra Saudi barrels. Saudi Arabia, they say, is making good on its pledge to guarantee the security of oil supplies.

"Saudi Arabia is pumping enough to supply their customers, " Leo Drollas, senior economist at the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies, said.

In recent months Saudi Arabia has made up the bulk of a shortfall in Venezuelan crude after a nationwide strike crippled the South American producer's oil production.

Concerns that Iraqi crude supplies could be disrupted by a possible U.S.-led attack will now put further pressure on Saudi Arabia to produce more oil, analysts say. But they question how much more oil the kingdom can realistically put into the market over the short-term.

"It looks as if the Saudis are getting close to their near-term production threshold, " one analyst said. He said that Saudi Arabia can produce up to 10.5 million BPD but this could take several months to achieve.

A survey by the Middle East Economic Survey Monday meanwhile, put Saudi Arabia's crude production at 9.2 million BPD in February.

Venezuela's crude production also rose sharply in February compared to January, as it showed signs of recovering from recent strike action. The latest estimates show that Venezuela pumped 1.650 million BPD in February, up from 0.660 million BPD estimated for January.

But, the latest figures still show that Venezuela was a long way off meeting its current OPEC target of 2.820 million BPD. Analysts say because of damage caused to Venezuelan oil fields during the recent strike it could take several months before it can reach its full OPEC production allowance.

Oil analysts also said that as Venezuelan production is was way below its OPEC allowance in February, this meant that the group's overall compliance to its current OPEC ceiling wasn't too poor even though most members are now producing above targets.

Most other OPEC members continue to pump way above their OPEC output targets. Analysts say this is a result of high oil prices. "They are making hay at these prices," one analyst said.

Concerns about a U.S.-led military attack on Iraq and how that would impact on oil supplies from Iraq and other producers in the region pushed crude oil prices to 12-year highs last week. In the U.S., oil futures rose to almost $40.00 a barrel; while, in the U.K., crude futures were at one stage just off $34.00/bbl.

But, analysts expressed concern as to how much more oil, OPEC can realistically produce, as most members are currently producing at full capacity.

The UAE, possibly the only other OPEC member with some spare capacity produced 2.150 million BPD of crude oil in February, according to Dow Jones estimates. It has an official OPEC target of 2.138 million BPD.

Meanwhile, Iraq's production fell by some 100,000 BPD in February from January to 2.390 million BPD, those analysts polled by Dow Jones estimated.

As U.S. and allied troops continue to gather in the Persian Gulf, analysts say February may have been the last month in which Iraq's crude supplies were at fairly stable levels.

OPEC ministers meanwhile, are preparing to gather in Vienna March 11, during which they are scheduled to discuss their oil policy amid uncertainties over future Iraqi production and concerns over the traditional second-quarter slump in crude demand. (*)

Table of OPEC members' crude oil output by country:

Country	Feb	Jan	Target from Jan 1	Current Target from Feb 1
S Arabia	8.733	8.367	7.476	7.963
Iran	3.660	3.603	3.377	3.597
Venezuela	1.650	0.660	2.647	2.820
UAE	2.150	2.130	2.007	2.138
Nigeria	2.173	2.167	1.894	2.017
Kuwait	2.050	2.027	1.845	1.965
Libya	1.396	1.377	1.232	1.312
Indonesia	1.083	1.100	1.192	1.270
Algeria	1.050	1.010	0.735	0.783
Qatar	0.756	0.727	0.596	0.635
TOTAL(10)	24.701	23.168	23.001	24.500
Iraq	2.390	2.493
TOTAL (11)	27.091	25.661