Wood Mackenzie sees SE Asia delivering less than one-third of planned gas power capacity by 2030

By Romel S. Gurky

Southeast Asia is expected to commission less than one-third of its planned gas-fired power generation capacity by 2030 as turbine shortages, financing constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks delay projects across the region, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The consultancy said governments across six major Southeast Asian markets are targeting about 53 gigawatts (GW) of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, but it expects only 14.9 GW to reach commercial operation.

"The challenge today is not planning power projects but executing them. New gas-fired capacity depends on several critical enablers, including LNG infrastructure, project financing and turbine availability," Wood Mackenzie Southeast Asia Power and Renewables Research Analyst Alvin Tan said.

The report found that only 11 GW of the planned gas-to-power pipeline has secured gas turbines, while the remaining projects are likely to face equipment delivery lead times of at least five years.

Wood Mackenzie projects Southeast Asia's electricity demand will increase 2.4 times by 2050, driven by industrial expansion, manufacturing relocation under the China+1 strategy, and investment in semiconductor, electronics and hyperscale data center industries. Gas demand from the power sector is forecast to more than double by 2050, accounting for more than one-quarter of regional electricity generation.

The consultancy also expects Southeast Asia to become a net gas importer by 2033, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplying more than 80% of regional gas demand by 2050.

For Indonesia, Wood Mackenzie said only 200 megawatts (MW) of the country's planned 8.4 GW gas-fired capacity pipeline has secured turbine supply, the lowest proportion among the markets assessed.

It said Indonesia's abundant domestic coal resources reduce near-term power supply risks but could slow decarbonization efforts, prompting greater emphasis on solar power deployment alongside selective gas-fired power development.

Vietnam is projected to face the region's largest delivery gap, with only 3.7 GW expected to be completed against the government's 29.4 GW target by 2030. Malaysia is forecast to add 5.9 GW compared with a target of about 9.4 GW, while Singapore remains the region's strongest performer after securing turbine supply for all major projects scheduled before 2030.

Wood Mackenzie also forecast the Philippines will commission only 0.4 GW of new gas-fired capacity against a target of about 2 GW, while Thailand is expected to add 0.5 GW compared with its 1.4 GW target as it manages surplus generation capacity.

Editing by Alexander Ginting