Argus warns of continued pressure on coal markets

By Adianto P. Simamora

Global coal prices remain highly volatile amid the weak demand and tighter margins for major exporters such as Indonesia and Australia, according to Argus Media.

Andrew Jones, Editor of Solid Fuels Asia at Argus Media, told the Indonesia Coal Outlook Conference last week that high-calorie Newcastle 6000kcal prices have been “a lot more volatile than the lower grades,” largely driven by fluctuations in LNG prices.

"One interesting thing I do like to point out is the Newcastle 6000 (kcal) price has been a lot more volatile than the lower grades. That market is heavily influenced by LNG prices,” he said.

The surge in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was followed by a steep correction, with prices remaining rangebound through 2023–2024.

Andrew said Indonesian coal exports and output have fallen in January–September 2025 due to weak demand, heavy rains, and low prices, though Chinese summer demand provided temporary support in the third quarter.

Read also : Indonesia to offset global coal decline through 2030

In Australia, thermal coal exports were flat year-on-year in the first half, with roughly 30 million tons of export production — or 15 percent — loss-making at prices below US$100 per ton.

He added that producers in both countries face challenges in adjusting output.

 “It is always difficult for Australian suppliers to cut back on production significantly because they are tied into very strict take-or-pay contracts,” Andrew said.

Argus sees pressure continuing on Indonesian and Australian supply, with Southeast Asia — particularly Vietnam and the Philippines — standing out as demand growth centers.

A mild La Niña event could also disrupt production in both countries, adding further uncertainty to the 2026 market outlook, he said.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak