Brent falls on potential Strait of Hormuz reopening, Rystad outlines recovery scenarios
Saturday, April 18 2026 - 08:16 AM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
Brent crude futures dropped sharply by US$10 per barrel after signals of potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as markets priced in a possible de-escalation of Middle East tensions, according to Rystad Energy.
The decline followed a statement by Iran’s foreign minister indicating free passage through the Strait, a key choke point for global oil trade. Rystad said the announcement has shifted market expectations toward a faster recovery in oil flows, despite continued disruption.
The consultancy estimates around 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production remains curtailed across major Middle East producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.
Under its most optimistic “Strait Open” scenario, Rystad said vessel traffic could begin recovering as early as this weekend, with tanker repositioning starting by late April and upstream production rebounding through May and June.
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In this scenario, oil output could return to pre-conflict levels of about 26–27 million bpd by the third quarter of 2026. The cumulative supply shortfall for 2026 is estimated at around 970 million barrels, with Brent prices likely easing toward $80 per barrel.
Rystad added that production losses from infrastructure damage are expected to remain limited at below 0.3 million bpd and could be offset by new drilling by late 2026 or early 2027.
In contrast, the firm’s base case assumes a slower recovery starting in May, resulting in a larger supply shortfall of about 1.2 billion barrels in 2026 and supporting Brent prices above $120 per barrel in the near term.
A downside scenario involving prolonged escalation and a full blockade of the Strait could push the supply shortfall to 1.8 billion barrels, potentially triggering significant demand destruction to balance the market.
Rystad noted that even under a recovery scenario, logistical normalization will take time, with global tanker networks requiring six to eight weeks to fully reposition, while insurers and shipowners may need two to five weeks to resume normal operations.
Editing by Alexander Ginting