LNG prices ease but outlook uncertain after failed US-Iran talks, Rystad says
Friday, April 17 2026 - 08:26 AM WIB
Global LNG prices have declined in recent days but remain volatile following the collapse of peace talks between the United States and Iran, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy released Thursday.
Rystad said negotiations between the US and Iran ended without agreement, sustaining uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global LNG supply.
Despite this, Asian LNG prices for June delivery fell 14% week-on-week to $16.5 per MMBtu, reflecting short-term expectations of improved supply and weaker seasonal demand.
Read also : Ceasefire eases oil prices but physical market tightness persists, Rystad says
The consultancy outlined three scenarios quantifying the potential impact of continued disruption:
• Controlled Strait scenario: LNG transit remains restricted under tight control, with throughput stabilizing at two to three vessels in the third quarter of 2026 before returning to normal levels in the fourth quarter. Total supply losses are estimated at around 38 million tonnes (Mt), with continued price volatility in Asia.
• Reopening scenario: A ceasefire leads to reopening of the Strait, with production ramping up from June and reaching near full capacity by July, excluding about 17% of damaged output. Supply losses are estimated at 32 Mt, with average Asian LNG prices projected at around $16.75 per MMBtu in 2026.
• Escalation scenario: If conflict intensifies and no production resumes from key exporters such as Qatar and the UAE for the rest of 2026, LNG prices could rise significantly to curb demand, with Asian spot prices averaging around $30 per MMBtu.
Rystad said the recent price decline may not fully reflect these risks, as supply recovery from the Middle East could take longer than expected.
European gas prices have also fallen, with the TTF benchmark dropping to about $14.3 per MMBtu, supported by ample supply and weak demand due to mild weather.
The consultancy added that LNG prices, particularly in Asia, are expected to remain closely linked to oil price movements, as fuel switching continues in price-sensitive markets.
Editing by Alexander Ginting