China coal-fired power generation falls in 2025 as renewables outpace demand growth
Monday, February 16 2026 - 10:55 AM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
China’s coal-fired power generation fell 1.9% in 2025, marking its first annual decline since 2015 as non-fossil generation met rising electricity demand, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a report.
Power demand rose 5% in 2025, or 494 terawatt hours, but incremental demand was supplied by carbon-free sources including wind, solar, nuclear and hydro rather than coal.
China’s wind and solar capacity has expanded more than tenfold over the past decade to 1,842 gigawatts, supported by steep declines in generation costs. Since 2015, levelized costs of energy for utility-scale solar and onshore wind have fallen 77% and 73%, respectively, Wood Mackenzie said.
Nuclear capacity increased to 62 GW from 27 GW in 2015, while combined nuclear and hydro capacity now totals 445 GW. China has also deployed 340 GW of inter-regional transmission capacity to connect renewable resources in western and northern regions to major demand centres in the east and south.
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Coal plant utilisation rates have declined steadily, with capacity factors falling from 60% in 2011 to 52% in 2024 and 48.2% in 2025. Wood Mackenzie expects utilisation to drop further to 32% by 2035 as parts of the fleet transition to reserve status.
Coal plants are increasingly shifting from baseload power suppliers to providers of flexibility to balance variable renewable generation. Around 600 GW of coal capacity has undergone flexibility retrofits, the report said.
Sharon Feng, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said the 2025 decline suggests China’s power sector carbon emissions may have peaked in 2024, though she cautioned that coal generation could remain on an “undulating plateau” in coming years.
Uncertainty remains over future power demand growth, extreme weather risks, renewable investment trends and grid resilience. Rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data centres could drive additional electricity demand. Wood Mackenzie estimates China’s data centre capacity will reach 78 GW by 2030, up 105% from 38 GW in 2024, potentially sustaining reliance on existing coal-fired plants to ensure grid reliability.
Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak