December ICP slips to $61.10 amid global oil oversupply fears
Friday, January 16 2026 - 07:48 AM WIB
By Ranuh Rafiani Putri
Indonesia’s crude oil benchmark price (ICP) for December 2025 fell to US$61.10 per barrel, down US$1.73 from November’s level, weighed by concerns over a global oil oversupply and rising production from major producers, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (MEMR) said.
The December ICP was set under Ministerial Decree No. 10.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2026 dated Jan. 9, 2026, according to the ministry.
The decline was driven by market concerns over a potential “super glut” as global oil supply continues to outpace demand, fueled by strong U.S. output, higher OPEC+ production and projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showing a surplus of 3.7–4.0 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, exceeding stock levels seen during the pandemic.
Director General of Oil and Gas Laode Sulaeman said easing geopolitical risks also contributed to the price decline, citing prospects of reduced tensions between Russia and Ukraine following signals that Kyiv may withdraw its aspiration to join NATO.
“Russia has also projected higher oil production, increasing to 10.36 million bpd in 2025 and further rising to 10.54 million bpd in 2026,” Laode said in a statement on Thursday.
Read also : November ICP falls to $62.83 amid strong dollar, oversupply concerns
He added that global supply continued to expand, with OPEC+ crude output in November 2025 rising on a month-on-month basis to 43.065 million bpd.
OPEC, in its December 2025 publication, revised up its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2025 by 40,000 bpd from the previous month to 950,000 bpd. Meanwhile, S&P Global cut its 2025 oil demand growth projection by 16,000 bpd to 730,000 bpd.
In the Asia-Pacific region, prices were also pressured by weaker Chinese refinery activity, with China’s crude throughput falling 0.9% month-on-month in November 2025 to 14.86 million bpd, the lowest level in six months.
Average prices of major crude benchmarks declined in December compared with November. Dated Brent fell by US$0.95 to US$62.70 per barrel, WTI dropped by US$1.61 to US$57.87, Brent ICE slid by US$2.02 to US$61.64, and the OPEC Basket declined by US$2.61 to US$61.85 per barrel.
The Indonesian Crude Price averaged US$61.10 per barrel in December, down from US$62.83 in the previous month.
Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak