Global copper concentrate supply tightens as disruptions hit major mines: SMM

By Dominikus

Global copper concentrate supply is expected to remain under pressure in 2026 as persistent disruptions across major mining operations continue to constrain raw material availability, with Indonesia’s Grasberg among the key projects affected, according to data presented by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) last week on its webinar.

SMM highlighted that 2025 was marked by frequent operational disruptions at several of the world’s largest copper mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia, El Teniente and Collahuasi in Chile, and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo. These incidents collectively introduced significant uncertainty into global supply and underscored the fragility of upstream production.

Global copper concentrate output in 2025 was estimated at around 19.9 million tonnes in metal content, with total sulfide copper mine production expected to rise modestly year-on-year to approximately 20.06 million tonnes. However, SMM flagged that about 580,000 tonnes of production remained at risk due to operational instability, representing a persistent vulnerability in the supply chain.

Looking ahead, the supply-demand balance for copper concentrate is expected to remain in deficit in the near term. SMM projections show a deficit of around 317,000 tonnes in 2026, narrowing from deeper deficits in previous years but still reflecting structural tightness in upstream supply.

This tightening comes despite a broader surplus outlook for refined copper, highlighting a growing divergence between concentrate availability and smelting capacity. As new smelting capacity continues to come online, particularly in China, competition for feedstock is expected to intensify, placing pressure on treatment and refining charges and squeezing margins for smelters.

Read also : Global copper market faces mixed outlook, with surplus in 2025 and deficit in 2026

SMM noted that the global copper market is increasingly shaped by this structural imbalance, where sufficient refined output masks underlying constraints in raw material supply. The situation is further complicated by logistical disruptions, geopolitical developments, and operational risks at key mining assets.

Indonesia’s Grasberg mine remains a critical component of global supply dynamics. As one of the world’s largest copper producers, any disruption at Grasberg can have a disproportionate impact on global concentrate availability. The inclusion of Grasberg among major disrupted mines in 2025 underscores Indonesia’s continued relevance in shaping global copper market conditions.

On the demand side, copper consumption is expected to remain supported by growth in energy transition-related sectors, including power infrastructure, renewable energy, and energy storage systems. Additional demand from emerging areas such as artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers is also expected to contribute to sustained consumption growth.

SMM expects China and Africa to remain key pillars of supply growth in 2026, supported by new capacity additions and integrated supply chains. However, ongoing risks in both regions mean that supply stability remains uncertain.

In the near term, the copper market is expected to be defined by tight concentrate supply, heightened competition for feedstock, and continued sensitivity to disruptions at major mining operations, reinforcing concerns over long-term raw material security.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak