Growth rate of Indonesian coal production predicted to slow

Indonesian coal production will continue to grow this year and next year, albeit at at slower pace, as most major coalminers, had reached near-optimum capacity, with shareholders reluctant to invest new capital under current fiscal circumstances, an industry player said.

Graeme Robertson, president director of Adaro Indonesia, largest Indonesian coal mining and deputy chairman of Indonesian Coal Mining Association predicted this year Indonesian coal producers will be able to increase production from 106.6 million tons in 2002 to 112 million tons this year and 117.4 million tons next year. Robertson also predicted that coal export would grow modestly from 75 million tons in 2002 to 78 million tons and 81 million tons respectively in 2003 and 2004.

?In the next years, growth will be fueled by smaller size mining company,? said Robertson when addressing seminar organized by McCloskey in Jakarta Tuesday.

He added Indonesia would not have difficulty in supporting coal production and supply with existing barge loading, trans-shipment and port operations capable of handling some 110 million tons of coal annually and can readily be increased.

Meanwhile, ICMA chairman Jeffrey Mulyono in the same seminar predicted in the following years, there will be no new significant investment either by existing producers or new players due to unsolved problems such as VAT, royalty, new equipment taxes, unresolved forestry issue, unfisnished mining law and unclear status of coal agreement.

?This condition may put the coming years of Indonesian coal supply will not be far from the 2002,? said Jeffrey.

Robertson said despite stiff competition from Australia and China, Indonesian coal will continue to be sought by customers due to its unique low sulphur low-ash property and competitive long-term supply. (alex)

INDONESIA COAL PRODUCTION BY COMPANY
(million tonnes)
?	Actual					Forecast
EXISTING PRODUCERS	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
?Adaro Indonesia	10.9	13.6	15.5	17.7	20.8	21.5	22.0
?Anugerah Bara Kaltim	0	0	0	1.0	1.7	2.3	2.5
?Allied Indo Coal	0.8	0.4	0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
?Antang Gunung Meratus	0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.8	1.0
?Arutmin Indonesia	6.3	8.7	7.8	9.6	10.0	11.0	11.0
?Baradinamika	0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.5
?Bukit Asam	9.8	11.2	10.7	10.2	9.5	10.0	10.5
?Berau Coal	2.0	3.3	4.5	6.7	6.9	7.5	8.0
?BHP Kendilo	1.0	1.1	1.1	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.8
?Bukit Baiduri	1.6	1.7	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.5	3.0
?Bukit Sunur	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1
?Danau Mas Hitam	0.2	0.3	0.1	0	0.2	0.2	0.2
?Fajar Bumi Sakti	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2
?Gunung Bayan Pratama	0	0.7	1.2	2.2	2.8	3.0	3.0
?Hasnur	0	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.2
?Indominco Mandiri	2.0	3.1	3.7	4.4	5.6	5.8	6.0
?Jorong Barutama Greston	0	1.0	1.2	2.6	2.5	2.8	3.0
?Kaltim Prima Coal	14.7	14.0	13.1	15.5	17.7	18.0	18.5
?Karbindo Abesyapradi	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
?Kideco Jaya Agung	5.0	7.3	8.1	10.4	11.5	12.0	12.5
?Kitadin Corporation	1.1	0.9	1.3	1.7	2.5	2.7	2.7
?Lanna Harita Indonesia	0	0	0	0.3	1.0	1.2	1.6
?Multi Harapan Utama	1.3	1.6	1.2	1.3	1.0	1.0	1.0
?Sebuku	1.2	1.5	1.5	2.0	2.1	2.0	2.0
?Tanito Harum	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.6	1.7	1.8	2.0
?Tanjung Alam Raya	0	0	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8
Sub Total	60.0	73.1	76.2	92.8	103.6	109.0	113.4
?Cooperatives, small and new mines	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	3.0	3.0	4.0
?TOTAL	63.0	76.1	78.7	95.3	106.6	112.0	117.4
?Production Growth	-	13.1	2.6	15.6	11.3	5.4	5.4
Source: McCloskey, 2003	?	?	?	?	?	?	?