HSBC forecasts gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026
Monday, October 20 2025 - 08:48 AM WIB
Jakarta, Oct 20 – HSBC has projected that gold prices could climb as high as US$5,000 per ounce in 2026, extending the metal’s ongoing bull run amid mounting geopolitical and economic risks.
Spot gold surged past the US$4,300 mark on Thursday, heading for its strongest weekly gain since December 2008.
In a research note quoted by Reuters on Friday, HSBC said the rally is being driven by geopolitical tensions, continued central bank purchases, strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and uncertainty linked to global trade tariffs.
“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher through the first half of 2026, and we could very well reach a high of US$5,000 per ounce during that period,” the bank said.
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HSBC raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to US$3,455 per ounce, up from US$3,355 previously. It also lifted its 2026 average price forecast to US$4,600 from an earlier estimate of US$3,950.
The bank cited sustained geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty, and growing public debt levels as key factors supporting gold’s appeal.
HSBC added that the sharp price gains seen in the second half of 2025 and the entry of new investors into the market could keep prices elevated through early 2026, though it expects heightened volatility and some price moderation in the latter half of the year.
“Unlike previous rallies, we believe many of these new buyers will likely stay in the gold market even after the rally ends, not just for potential gains but for gold’s diversification and safe-haven qualities,” the bank said.
HSBC’s forecast aligns with similar projections from Bank of America and Societe Generale, which also expect gold to reach US$5,000 per ounce in 2026.
Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak