Indonesia, Australia to boost thermal coal exports: ABARE
Monday, June 26 2006 - 05:59 PM WIB
Indonesian thermal coal exports may jump 9.4 percent in 2007 to 145 million metric tons, after a 7.5 percent increase this year, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) said Monday. Australian exports may rise 4 percent next year, while Colombian exports may rise 3 percent, it said.
Demand for thermal coal is rising, buoyed by growth in coal-fired power generation in Asia amid rising crude oil and natural gas prices. A decline in international freight rates since late last year has led to higher demand for Australian and Indonesiancoal from European consumers.
"Relatively high coal prices in recent years have stimulated additional investment in coal production, transport infrastructure and export capacity in Indonesia," the bureau said in a report. "Exports from Australia, Indonesia and Colombia are forecast to increase markedly."
World trade is expected to increase by 4 percent this year to 591.6 million tons, and by a further 2.6 percent next year to 606.7 million, the bureau said. Asian trade may jump 6 percent this year and 4 percent in 2007, while European imports may remain "relatively stable," it said.
China's imports may increase 12 percent next year to 29 million tons, while Indian imports may rise 11 percent to 30 million and Malaysian imports may jump 18 percent to 13.8 million, the bureau said. Chinese exports may be unchanged next year at 60 million tons, compared with 66.5 million tons in 2005, it said.
A recent gain in thermal coal spot prices from Newcastle, Australia, the world's biggest coal export harbor, is expected to support contract prices, which are yet to be settled for the 2006-2007 Japanese financial year, the bureau said.
Thermal coal spot prices reached about US$53 a ton in late May, up from about $38 a ton in November, it said. Forecast supply increases are expected to dampen further rises in spot prices, it said.(*)