Indonesia’s metallurgical coal exports to stay flat until 2030: Wood Mackenzie

By Adianto P. Simamora

Indonesia’s metallurgical coal exports are expected to remain stable at an average of 12 million tons per year through 2030, before increasing significantly over the following two decades.

“Indonesian met coal exports will remain steady until 2030, averaging 12 Mt annually, supported by domestic demand self-sufficiency. After 2030, new low-cost projects will come online, driving export growth,” Min Li, Senior Analyst for Coal Research at Wood Mackenzie, speaking at the 2026 Indonesia Coal Outlook Conference recently.

Wood Mackenzie projects exports to more than double to 31 million tons by 2050, led by increased demand from India and Vietnam. India is forecast to become Indonesia’s largest market, with imports growing from 3.7 Mt in 2024 to 15 Mt by 2050, driven by its preference for low-ash coking coal suitable for blending with domestic high-ash coal.

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She said that Vietnam is expected to be the second-largest importer, with volumes rising from 0.4 Mt in 2024 to 10 Mt by 2050 as the country expands its blast furnace capacity in line with industrial growth.

Meanwhile, China’s imports are projected to remain steady at around 3.5 Mt annually, as reduced tariffs on US coal allow for greater competition in the Chinese market.

“China imported more Indonesian coal this year to replace US coal, but as tariffs are lowered, we expect stronger US competition going forward,” Min Li said.

Wood Mackenzie noted that Indonesia’s long-term export growth will be underpinned by cost-efficient metallurgical coal projects and sustained demand from Asian steelmakers.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak